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Category: BREXIT

The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

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Time to be betting that Johnson is bluffing? The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead. At the moment I’m not convinced enough to bet. The huge down-side of a no deal exit,…

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Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

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In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition. After all,…

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The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

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Chart Betfair movements from Betdata.io Do those risking their cash think Boris is bluffing? At 6am this morning it looked as though there was going to be crossover in the Halloween UK exit from the EU betting with more money going on it actually happening than not. Since then the market has been turned back to no – that there won’t be an exit by that date. It would seem, therefore that the Cumming/Johnson line is not being believed by…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

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I don’t, unlike Dominic Cummings, think that No Deal is unstoppable. Parliament can stop it if it wants to. But let’s suppose that Mr Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the EU on October 31. Let’s further assume that he calls an election soon afterwards.  His pitch is obvious. “I said I’d get you out and I have. Now we need to charge whole-heartedly into the green fields awaiting us. I want to show you how great life will…

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Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage’s parties are rubbish in first past the post elections

Perhaps we ought to remind ourselves that Farage’s parties are rubbish in first past the post elections

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Our first slate of 50 Prospective Parliamentary Candidates to fight a Brexit general election. 100 more will follow next week, watch this space. pic.twitter.com/xGG7qk84Zp — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) August 3, 2019 Following the Brexit party’ flop in the Brecon and Radnorshire by elections the leader for life, Nigel Farage, has this afternoon published the above tweet with the faces of self first group of candidates to be selected by his party for a possible coming general election. In all his…

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Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitations?

Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitations?

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Could his mighty Islington fortress be built a little bit on sand? We’ve heard a lot about how Boris Johnson is at risk of losing his Westminster seat come the next election. His 5,034 majority over Labour in Uxbridge & South Ruislip is not at all commanding – Labour need just a 5.4% swing to take the seat – and what with Johnson leading the charge towards a No Deal Brexit, with the economic and other disruption that would cause,…

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The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

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A model for the next General Election? Reflecting on the Brecon outcome the most striking feature which hasn’t really been commented on is that in a seat in Wales that PC felt able to step aside in order  to help defeat the pro-Brexit Tories. Given the relative closeness of the outcome it’s clear that this decision and that of the Green Party played a crucial part in this election and no doubt lessons will be learnt . We have a…

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Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

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The pound could drop as low as $1.00 or $1.05 on a hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank analyst says https://t.co/vgb0ojdQON pic.twitter.com/S4SrjLc5iM — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The plummeting pound is a constant reminder of what Britain has to lose from crashing out without a deal (via @bopinion) https://t.co/A9BK8nSBrN pic.twitter.com/sQiecNk4v3 — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The markets could be what puts most pressure on Johnson After a week of almost positive coverage there’s a big cloud hanging over…

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