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Category: BREXIT

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo moment”?

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo moment”?

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Ladbrokes A prominent Brexiteer in a strong Remain seat The Foreign Secretary and former CON leadership contender, Dominic Raab, has been a rising star in the Tory party and now holds one of the top seats in Johnson’s cabinet. He’s also a strong Brexiteer. There’s nothing wrong with that except that his seat, Esher and Walton, borders the SW London Lib Dem seats of Twickenham and Kingston and at the referendum in 2016 the votes split 41.57% Leave to 58.43%…

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New YouGov polling on party Brexit awareness highlights the challenges facing LAB

New YouGov polling on party Brexit awareness highlights the challenges facing LAB

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With the coming general election looking set to be a battle between parties that back Leave and and those that back Remain this YouGov polling on perceptions of the Brexit stance of each party looks be a good pointer. As can be seen Johnson/Cummings have made progress with Leave voters that the Tories are pro-Brexit a finding that could be important given the Farage pitch of “we are more pure on Brexit than Johnson” My guess, however,  is that on…

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Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

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https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….

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Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

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How will this affect the campaign? There seems to be little doubt that the Tories will take hits from the SNP and the Lib Dems in the coming General Election. On top of that there could be messy situations in seats where Tory MPs who have been sacked stand again under a different flag potentially splitting the blue vote. If the Tories are to stay in the game and possibly win a majority then they need to take LAB seats…

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A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

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The Betfair 69% on it taking place this year looks a decent bet A leading SNP MP, Stewart Hosie, has told the BBC that there could be a confidence vote in Johnson as early as next week. If this happens, given the current Commons numbers, Johnson would almost certainly lose and then, under the FTPA, there would a fortnight under which an alternative government could be formed and if not a general election would be triggered. From what I can…

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Europe and the Security Schism

Europe and the Security Schism

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After several centuries of slowly drifting apart, the Eastern Roman Empire’s Orthodox Church and what became known as the Roman Catholic Church of Rome split. This difference, due to arguments about doctrine and pre-eminence of Pope and Patriarch, ended up having continental consequences. The gulf widened over time, until the Fourth Crusade in the 13th century. Due to the persuasive brilliance (if strategic foolishness) of Venice’s doge, Enrico Dandolo, this holy war was diverted from Jerusalem to target Constantinople. A…

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An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

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Icknield (Luton) result: LAB: 36.7% (-5.6)CON: 35.4% (-8.8)LDEM: 25.6% (+12.1)GRN: 2.3% (+2.3) Labour GAIN from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 26, 2019 We’ve seen big movements in the polls in recent months with Farage’s and the LDs move forward very strongly the latter often near tripling their GE2017 GB vote share of 7.6%. The local by-election above shows how the LD resurgence is going to make general election predictions that much harder. Swinson’s party will go into the election…

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First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiary

First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiary

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Survation Mail post Supreme Court poll votingCON 27% -2LAB 24% =LD 22% +4BREX 16% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation/Mail poll. How would you vote in new EU referendumRemain 53%Leave 47% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation Mail poll best PMJohnson 41%Swinson 21%Corbyn 18% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation/Mail poll "Should Johnson say sorry to the Queen"Yes 62%No 27%DK 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019