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Category: BREXIT

Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

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On Monday the Prime Minister will be ordered by the Court to send the letter and/or the Court will sign it himself. If the Prime Minister does not send the letter by the deadline tonight we *will* bring contempt of court proceedings against him personally. pic.twitter.com/DVQl1DK2g6 — Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) October 19, 2019 There are many battles still to come Apart from the processings taking place in the Scottish courts Johnson’s desire to get the Brexit legislation through the…

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Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

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His deal won’t pass, even if the numbers are there Boris Johnson has a problem and it’s not the one that most of the Westminster Village spent yesterday pondering. It is, however, one that gives the lie to the aphorism of the PM’s namesake, the 36th president of the United States, that “the first rule of politics is that its practitioners need to be able to count”. It’s not: that’s the second rule. The first rule is that its practitioners…

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There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go

There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go

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The betting odds above from Ladbrokes were correct as at 1345. Things might have changed since. Given how many different views and MPs counts estimates that we are seeing the lack of a clear view on the betting markers is hardly surprising. The outcome is clearly on a knife. What would really add to the drama would have this as a tie with the Speaker making the casting vote just eleven days before he steps down. One thing that hasn’t…

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Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s

Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s

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A guest slot from Timothy Hinton I have consistently misunderstood the Brexit options open to the UK as existing on a continuum, from the softest Single Market + Customs Union extreme on one end to the hardest No Deal extreme on the other. The choices made by Boris Johnson, and the relative speed with which the UK and EU were able to reach agreement on a radically different deal, have made it clear that the main options have been much…

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Welcome to the Looking-Glass

Welcome to the Looking-Glass

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“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – that’s all.”  Has Humpty (oops, sorry, the PM) gone and done it? Has he actually got Britain a deal to Brexit before 31 October? Well, it appears he…

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So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

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Now it is up to the Commons and the meaningful vote brexit: caught between a cock and a hard face pic.twitter.com/8aOkfH7Vmh — Sarah Dempster (@Dempster2000) October 17, 2019 So the person now calling for a Brexit extension is… @Nigel_Farage. Brexit has gone full circle. He wants an election on PM’s deal. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 17, 2019 2018: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = outrageous & unacceptable infringement on UK’s integrity…

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As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

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The voting intentions in the same YouGov poll. New YouGov/Times poll sees CON up 2 CON 37% +2LAB 22% =LD 18% -2BRX 11% -1GRN 5% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2019 A GE constituency poll We conducted a telephone method constituency poll (f/w) Oct 2nd) on behalf of the Liberal Democrats in Finchley & Golders Green. Headline GE voting intention with named candidate prompt was: Conservative – 29%Liberal Democrat – 41%Labour – 25%Green – 3%Brexit Party – 2%…

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As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

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Chart of Betfair movements from betdata.io On a day when so much seems to be changing on a Brexit dale there has not been as much betting movement as you might have thought. Still the view is that Brexit’s not going to happen immediately and not before a new general election. Tonight is just the first hurdle. If there is a draft deal that will have to be agreed by the EU27 at their meeting later in the week. And…

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