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Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

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YouGov/ST Boris polling finds that FEWER current CON voters would back party with Boris as leader (HT @georgeeaton) pic.twitter.com/gIvB2FZDTb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 The mayor attracts votes as well as turning some off Thanks to George Eaton at the New Statesman for picking this up. A Boris-led Tory party could lead to fewer current CON voters backing the party. Looking at the detail in the table above we see that there’s a 5% drop amongst current CON…

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An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

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Why we should be sceptical about all Boris polling For those like me who love watching political battles the ongoing tussle for the Tory leadership between Boris Johnson and George Osborne will be a pleasure to behold. Both have their strong points and both, it is said, have set their hearts on being Dave’s successor. If the Tories don’t hold on in government next May then that intriguing confrontation could be only nine months away. One factor that apparently is…

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Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

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Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh slash the odds in Boris being next CON leader from 5/1 to 9/4. He's new favourite — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 YouGov polling from February on the Boris effect & UKIP supports. pic.twitter.com/RR1Be5fgXf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 The big Tory news today has been the announcement by Boris that he’s to seek a constituency to fight at GE2015 so he can return to the commons. Back in February YouGov carried out some polling…

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Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015

Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015

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ITV News on the "Boris being encouraged to stand for Parliament" story http://t.co/TnYeD7NZxT pic.twitter.com/BhSlVM5rUv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P betting market on which seat Boris will stand in at GE2015 pic.twitter.com/tA0lPRV2J9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 His term as Mayor ends in May 2016, then there might be a move The timing of the London Mayoral terms was always going to be a problem for Boris assuming that he wants to get back to the…

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Boris must be able to stand for the Tory leadership

Boris must be able to stand for the Tory leadership

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Do the parties need to review their eligibility criteria?   Two things stand out from a quick glance at the odds for the next PM.  The first is that Ed Miliband (8/11, Ladbrokes), is rated about ten times more likely to be next to get the job than anyone else.  That’s not too surprising: he’s secure in his own position, Labour has had a steady lead in the polls for most of the parliament now and a built-in advantage in…

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Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Theresa May has just come a little closer to being Theresa Will?

Is John Rentoul right – Was Boris’ speech a disaster and Theresa May has just come a little closer to being Theresa Will?

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On Wednesday Boris Johnson delivered the Margaret Thatcher lecture at the Centre for Policy Studies. You can read the full speech here. I must declare an interest, speaking as a Tory, I loved the speech, in my opinion, this is the sort of speech more Tories need to make. Unsurprisingly It has lead to pieces like Boris Johnson’s philosophy isn’t just elitist – it’s sinister and  Boris Johnon is Still a ‘Nasty Piece of Work’? even George Osborne distanced himself from parts of…

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As Boris speculation grows the latest bets on whether he’ll make an early return to the Commons

As Boris speculation grows the latest bets on whether he’ll make an early return to the Commons

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With Dave saying he would welcome the return of Boris to the House of Commons, Hills are offering odds of 4/1 that he will become an MP BEFORE the General Election, and 6/4 that he does so AT the General Election. This is a tricky calculation for the twice-elected London Mayor. The general election is in May 2015 – his term at City Hall runs until May 2016. Should he seek the nomination for a seat in the knowledge that…

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Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris NOT the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories

Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris NOT the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories

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“In his London campaigns Boris undeniably attracted voters who usually support other parties. As our research shows, this would be less likely to work in a general election. Otherwise Labour and Lib Dem supporting voters backed Boris as Mayor on a personal mandate and a personal manifesto; for many, the fact that he was a Tory was incidental. Asking them to vote for a Conservative government, inhabited by the Conservative Party and implementing Conservative policies but with Boris at the…

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