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BoJo’ s controversial burka comments don’t seem to have hurt him in the TMay successor betting

BoJo’ s controversial burka comments don’t seem to have hurt him in the TMay successor betting

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But they could make it harder getting on the ballot With TMay herself now joining those attacking BoJo for his Burka comments the big danger he faces is not being able to get enough fellow CON MPs to support him in the first rounds of voting to get on the ballot. It is precisely this type of comment that raises big question marks over his judgement. It appears to be attention-seeking. I’ve little doubt that if he got to the…

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Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

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Picture: ConHome next Tory leader polling from December 2015 Following the recent ConHome polling Mike noted that Boris Johnson had once again become the favourite to be Theresa May’s successor but I’m going to explain why I’m continuing on laying Boris as next Tory leader/PM. 1) Polls are not immutable. Look at the picture atop this thread, back in December 2015 George Osborne had led the ConHome poll for a fifth successive month, polls are not static, they can rapidly…

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BoJo back on top of the ConHome preferred next leader ratings

BoJo back on top of the ConHome preferred next leader ratings

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Up from 8% to 29% in a month Former Mayor of London and former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, who quit the cabinet last month over the Chequers deal, has seen a remarkable upsurge in his fortunes in the monthly ConservativeHome survey of preferred next leader survey. He’s now on 29% up from the 8% of a month ago. These monthly surveys are proving to be hugely volatile but interesting all the same. Sajid Javid the previous number one dropped two…

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Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succeed TMay since GE2017

Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succeed TMay since GE2017

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Chart Betdata.io Rees-Mogg now down to 3rd favourite There’s been some movement in the Betfair’s next CON leader market following the pulication at the weekend of the latest ConHome survey of party members. The big news there was that the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, is now the favoured choice of CON members who partipate in ConHome surveys. This has had a big impact on the betting with Javid now jumping about Gove into the favourite slot. At least now the…

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BoJo – the betting favourite with a record of disappointing punters

BoJo – the betting favourite with a record of disappointing punters

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In what became the Conservative Leadership 2016, Boris Johnson was not, as we know, the winning outcome. Indeed he did not put his name forward as a candidate. The highest Betfair Exchange odds were 55% on the day after the Brexit referendum. In what became the Prime Minister after Cameron market, Johnson didn’t win yet on the Betfair Exchange next PM market on June 24th 2016 his top price rated his chances at 60%. In the currently-live market Prime Minister…

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Suddenly Tory cabinet indiscipline moves to the top of the political agenda

Suddenly Tory cabinet indiscipline moves to the top of the political agenda

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Is Tory discipline on the verge of breaking down? https://t.co/ELqftPoehk — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) June 26, 2018 Maybe it was BoJo that started it but very quickly we are seeing leading cabinet figures seeking to set the agenda away from the principle of cabinet collective responsibility. This could be very dangerous for TMay who clearly does not feel she has the strength to sack the rebels. With DefSec, Gavin Williamson, demanding zillions extra for defence the Chief Secretary to the…

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A year ago BoJo was hot favourite for PM: Now those concerned about Brexit jobs are being told “F**k business”

A year ago BoJo was hot favourite for PM: Now those concerned about Brexit jobs are being told “F**k business”

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Boris's response to the Airbus decision – "F**k business" ' | via @telegraph https://t.co/NT7QO6kEwP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2018 The TMay successor betting since GE17 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet