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YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

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This raises doubts over BoJo’s ability to win converts YouGov has published what appears to be the only poll carried out on last night’s CON leader debates. The main details are in the YouGov table above. While there’s little doubt that the member for Uxbridge does well with Tory voters but the party is going to need much more than them in a general election and that presents something of a dilemma.  That just 7% of Remain voters gave their…

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From a media perspective Team Boris will regard last night as job well done

From a media perspective Team Boris will regard last night as job well done

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He’s helped by the size of the field The Boris plan of refusing almost all media invitations meant that last night was the first time anybody had seen him facing scrutiny since TMay announced that she was going. But the nature of the programme with the BBC feeling it had to bring in questions from studios all over the country meant that the time spent with the overwhelming betting favourite was very limited. I found him less than convincing and…

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Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

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Kitchen Cabinet on choosing between the illness and the cure Boris Johnson’s election to the Conservative leadership looks almost assured. As I mentioned on a previous thread, Gavin Williamson looks to have done wonders for BoJo’s election prospects. If you are a Boris hater, I might have some good news for you. There is a way he may not be elected. The bad news (for many) is that the only way for that to happen is to have him face…

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The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

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It’s all about the timing Conventional wisdom has it that the favourite never wins Tory leadership races. In one sense, this is probably true. I don’t have the historic figures but before every leadership election since the Party moved away from the old Magic Circle method of leaders ‘emerging’, there’s a good case that the person who emerged the winner was not the one seen as most likely to succeed in the period before the election was called. However, that…

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Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

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Airy assertions and motivational phrases do not deliver deals or organise governments The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value. Put simply, the main question is whether he’ll cruise over the line or stumble over it. His safety-first approach may well tend towards the latter outcome for lack of energy and momentum…

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Boris and the illusion of unity

Boris and the illusion of unity

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“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…

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2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election

2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election

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Chart of Betfair price movements from Betdata.io The big betting move following Johnson’s thumping victory in the first round of the CON MP leadership voting has been renewed interest in the next general election taking place this year. This has now moved to favourite on Betfair. A challenge for a Boris-led CON party is going to be keeping the parliamentary grouping together because, if not, you could see him failing a government confidence motion at the first hurdle which, if…

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Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

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Don’t confuse high name recognition with popularity Above is a chart based on the final polls in the 2012 London Mayoral race when Johnson just squeezed to victory with a margin of three points. As can be seen none of the pollsters had the gap so close. Overstatement can happen when one of the people being the subject of the survey has very high name recognition. So treat any Boris polling numbers with a degree of scepticism. Mike Smithson Follow…

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