Graphics: top one is from Paddy Power, the bottom one is from Ladbrokes Why I’m backing Boris Johnson to receive between 80% to 89.99% of the vote. If the YouGov polling is accurate then Boris Johnson is going to win a landslide in the leadership contest, yesterday’s poll had him winning 74% to 26%. My view is that polling for these leadership elections is a lot easier for YouGov than most of the other political polling they carry out. The…
Telegraph June 11 2019 The possiblity of a 140 majority would surely tempt the new PM There is little doubt that the Telegraph’s ComRes poll that appeared on June 11th played a major part in the Conservative leadership contest. It came out at a crucial time just as the MP rounds of voting were due to start. As the headline above showed it pointed to a Johnson led Conservative Party winning a majority of 140 seats over LAB in a…
Get ready for PM Johnson One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times. So tonight’s news in the Times that Johnson is ahead by 74-26 leaves us in little doubt about the outcome. That…
Lawyers are rarely regarded with affection. Lawyers-turned-politicians even less so. Nonetheless David Gauke’s speech at this week’s Lord Mayor’s banquet is worth a careful read, not least for its defence of the rule of law as a critical element underpinning democracy (a word never off the lips of some politicians wholly ignorant that something more than shouting “The people have voted” repeatedly is needed to sustain a democracy). Gauke’s quiet praise for the unfashionable virtues of public service, intellectual rigour, a…
Betfair Exchange historical prices from betdata.io With political uncertainty continuing to dominate British politics the chances of a general election this year have moved to a 42% chance on Betfair. This is not the highest it has ever been but, as the chart shows, it represents considerable change. I’m not convinced. I think the new CON leader, most likely Boris, will do anything that avoids an early exit that could deprive him of what he has been aiming for for…
And what did over a sugar tax when Mayor The Boris war on sugar taxes comes just two and a half years after he imposed a similar measure at City Hall while Mayor of London https://t.co/1RCUXibcNE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Johnson supporter: “Right now I would say it is only 60:40 Boris wins” With voting now taking place amongst CON members ITV’s Politcal Editor, Robert Peston writes on the Coffee House blog “According to one of Johnson’s more senior and respected supporters, the questions raised about whether he treats women with proper respect and has the powers of concentration and grasp of important detail necessary for any PM have been gnawing at the consciences of more Tory members than is…
Harriet Baldwin has asked the ICO if the Johnson campaign’s alleged use of mailing lists is legal David Morris says the ICO must investigate “deeply troubling” claims Ben Howlett and Tory councillors complaining about unsolicited calls from Team Boris https://t.co/jCn2j4wuX3 — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 2, 2019 Quite what this means for the campaign is unclear but if it sets off a narrative that Johnson’s likely victory was by cheating that could hang over him for a long time. This…