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The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

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Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out holding a general election before Britain has left the EU, saying: 'It would be the height of folly' — Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) July 15, 2019 Bet against an early general election. Boris Johnson has ruled it out. As he is Britain’s presumed Prime Minister, we can take him at his word. And here’s why. Let’s look at the counter-argument first. You will not lack for Leavers arguing that Boris Johnson should force an election as…

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What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

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No doubt he’ll be pressed at his first PMQs One of the current big political issues in Washington at the moment is a series of Trump Tweets yesterday attacking elected female Democratic members of Congress for their criticism of him particularly over the regime he’s imposed on immigrants in border camps. The Tweets above are part of his response and are probably the most overtly racist public comments that he’s made. The fact that his focus is on elected prominent…

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The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

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Winning the Mayoralty when the Tories were 20%+ ahead was no big deal Much of the case for Johnson is based on the fact that he won the London Mayoralty for the Tories in 2008. The capital is seen as strong Labour territory therefore, the argument goes, he’s the man to lead the party when there’s the threat of Labour advancing. The only problem with that 2008 Mayoral result is that for the Tories generally it was the party’s best…

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Boris vacillated on Darroch because he’s weak, not because of Trump

Boris vacillated on Darroch because he’s weak, not because of Trump

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His verbal grandiosity is a mask for a lack of self-confidence Boris Johnson has always had a facility for a briefly memorable turn of phrase. Whether referring to table tennis as, archaically, ‘whiff-whaff’ or describing Brexit talks extending into further rounds beyond October 31 as the ‘hamster wheel of doom’, Johnson’s words have the capacity to amuse and distract. For a politician, that’s a useful skill up to a point. The problem is that the phrases, like Johnson himself, tend…

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And now the Tory Brecon bar chart to try to beat off the Brexit party

And now the Tory Brecon bar chart to try to beat off the Brexit party

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From a Tory campaign AD Brecon & Radnorshire by-election Boris’s first electoral test – getting more by-election votes than Farage It might be a too big an ask to expect the Tories to retain the Brecon and Radnorshire seat where the by-election takes place on August 1st but the party would dearly love to win more votes than Farage’s Brexit Party. The circumstances, the fact that their candidate is the former MP who was deprived of his seat following the…

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Failing to back the ambassador – the first mistake of the Boris premiership

Failing to back the ambassador – the first mistake of the Boris premiership

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One thing that we know from the YouGov Conservative members’ polling is that that those who are choosing the next PM have a very different view of President Trump than than most UK voters. More than 50% of CON members have generally positive view compared with 21% amongst the electorate as a whole. The pollster finds 67% of Brits having a negative opinion. Maybe it was that knowledge which was behind Johnson’s equivocal response in the ITV debate last night…

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New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

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  Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote? Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: CON 23% LD 23% BREX 21% LAB: 17% GRN: 8% But there’s the possibility of success after Brexit…

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In spite of all the uncertainty a 2019 general election is still less than a 50% chance in the betting

In spite of all the uncertainty a 2019 general election is still less than a 50% chance in the betting

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Betdata.io chart of movements on Betfair Exchange Will Boris be tempted? Last night’s ComRes poll suggesting that the Tories under Johnson could secure a 40 seat majority raises the question once again of whether the new leader would risk going to the country soon after taking over the leadership. The reasons are powerful. The need to get Brexit through by the end of October and, of course, a desire to underpin the perceived democratic legitimacy of his position. Johnson would…

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