The challenges facing the new man Beleaguered prospective Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not having a good start to the week. Take his Monday. Sir Alan Duncan resigned as Foreign Office minister, making it clear that he would vote against Boris Johnson in a vote of no confidence if Britain was heading for no deal (indeed, he sought the opportunity for the House of Commons to express its lack of confidence in Boris Johnson before he became Prime Minister). …
This is the day that many of those elected at CON MPs have been planning for – making a gesture they hope will undermine in some way their new leader who engineered his campaign to minimise the level of scrutiny he came under. Quite how many and what they do we don’t know but the trigger will be he announcement of the leadership election result with the expected big victory for the man some Tories hope will help them beat…
Last weekend I did a piece on who will be the next Chancellor and my central premise was that Boris Johnson would leave Jeremy Hunt at King Charles Street lest he adds another malcontent on the backbenches so dabbling in this market didn’t really interest me as I might end up tying up my money for a long time. The events in the Strait of Hormuz probably ensures Boris Johnson decides to keep Hunt there for continuity reasons alone. However the…
Five of the past 7 male Tory PMs were educated there Within minutes of Boris being declared leader on Tuesday morning expect new betting markets on who will succeed him as CON leader, who’ll be his successor and how long will survive at Number 10. When considering a factor to remember is that the form book shows us that Tories liked to be led by someone who was educated at Eton. Going back to 1955 of the seven men…
Parliament won’t be able to repeat Cooper I: only nuclear options remain Rarely can there have been such a disparity between the apparent dullness of the procedural minutiae of an amendment to a technical Bill about Northern Ireland, and the breathless attention paid it by the political commentariat as there was this week. Wrongly. They might as well not have bothered. In trying to find processes to avoid the government proroguing parliament in late October (processes which might not work…
Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange On Betfair a 2019 exit is just a 39% chance We’ve seen in the latest defeat for the government in proroguing parliaments that the parliamentary situation is going to make it very tough for Johnson. There simply aren’t the MP numbers there and now rebellious remain ministers are acting in unison in the same manner as the ERG hardliners. The latest news that at least three cabinet ministers are ready to resign also adds to…
MPs vote to block the next UK PM shutting down Parliament in order to push through a no-deal #Brexit, by 315 votes to 274https://t.co/0puewBdfxO pic.twitter.com/AP6HJf6fO0 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 18, 2019 https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1151840143889711105 pic.twitter.com/vDU9MSngqB — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 18, 2019 So the incoming PM’s wings are clipped before he starts Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange With Boris due to become Prime Minister in just 6 days time there’ve been sharp changes on the Betfair year of the next general election market. As can be seen from the chart 2019 is slipping downwards and the money is now going towards 2020. A lot of this, I would suggest, is down to a growing realisation that the Fixed-Term Parliament Act makes it quite hard for the new leader to call an election…