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Category: Boris

Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

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All the talk is of elections. This time we might actually see one. In a narrative that has strong echoes of 2017, the talk is all of the Conservatives holding large leads in the polls, remaking their coalition and sweeping all gloriously before them with a victory that will transform the electoral map. Well, perhaps. It was Marx who first suggested that when history repeats itself, the first time is tragedy and the second is farce. Whether or not you…

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Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

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Clause 30 of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. What happens if the Government doesn’t propose an extension? Parliament would have no say and we would exit the transition period on the 31 Dec 2020 even if a trade agreement hadn’t been reached by then with the EU; ie no deal. pic.twitter.com/mbCAsrX0eB — Hilary Benn (@hilarybennmp) October 21, 2019 Why getting the timetable motion through is going to be a struggle Above is Hillary Benn on a key issue of which…

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Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

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His deal won’t pass, even if the numbers are there Boris Johnson has a problem and it’s not the one that most of the Westminster Village spent yesterday pondering. It is, however, one that gives the lie to the aphorism of the PM’s namesake, the 36th president of the United States, that “the first rule of politics is that its practitioners need to be able to count”. It’s not: that’s the second rule. The first rule is that its practitioners…

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Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s

Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s

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A guest slot from Timothy Hinton I have consistently misunderstood the Brexit options open to the UK as existing on a continuum, from the softest Single Market + Customs Union extreme on one end to the hardest No Deal extreme on the other. The choices made by Boris Johnson, and the relative speed with which the UK and EU were able to reach agreement on a radically different deal, have made it clear that the main options have been much…

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As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

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Chart of Betfair movements from betdata.io On a day when so much seems to be changing on a Brexit dale there has not been as much betting movement as you might have thought. Still the view is that Brexit’s not going to happen immediately and not before a new general election. Tonight is just the first hurdle. If there is a draft deal that will have to be agreed by the EU27 at their meeting later in the week. And…

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“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

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They were also promising this. We’ve got the monstrosity of Settled Status instead. pic.twitter.com/41dNhKvENw — Catherine Redmond?#People’sVote #FBPE????? (@Redmo8Catherine) October 13, 2019 Things are different now the country’s being led by Cummings/Johnson Lots of talk at moment about “honouring the Referendum”. Fair enough. Those who espouse that seem to look to the result itself rather than the promises and assertions made my the official Leave campaign in the run up to the June 23rd 2016 vote. It was harder to…

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With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Chart of movements on the Betfair exchange from betdata.io The big news for those betting on whether there will be an exit from the EU this month within the Article 50 deadline is that the market rates the chances of a deal this week as being less likely. What we should read into that is hard to say. The EU has a long history of things going right to the wire and there must be just a possibility that something…

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