The political splits here should be worrying for Number 10. By backing Cummings they are going very much against what voters think . Thus looking at the party splits a majority of CON voters think he was wrong while Leave voters split 45% to 37% that he should resign. No doubt we’ll see more polling in the next few hours.
Cummings has burnt too many bridges to survive committing the cardinal British political sin: hypocricy 25 January 2016 is not a date that has gone down in history. Despite that, the events of that day were critical to Britain voting to leave the EU, with all that’s meant since. That morning, Dominic Cummings was summoned to a meeting that was intended to remove him from running the Vote Leave campaign. The meeting did not turn out as its board intended….
For the first time since lockdown Johnson’s government gets negative YouGov approval rating And in the White House race Trump is struggling against Biden
The above article has been posted this afternoon on The Independent website and puts forward what Sir Humphrey would describe as a ” very courageous” prediction. Sure Boris has not had the best of times leading a government facing the pandemic and sure the UK’s comparative record has not been that great. O’Grady notes in his piece:- “Every bumbling performance at prime minister’s questions, each stumbling appearance at a coronavirus media conference, each bit of misguided spin that emanates from Downing Street,…
Since the last election resulted in a substantial Conservative majority, many have said that Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next one. The implication is that the result this time significantly influences the result next time. The results in 2024 are influenced by the results in 2019. But is that true? In the jargon, do general election results suffer from serial autocorrelation – that bane of second year graduate students in statistical fields? Serial autocorrelation defined If…
The Wikipedia chart above shows all the leader ratings for the Prime Minister since the start of the year. As can be seen he has been doing pretty well during the pandemic with some very impressive figures. He’s had big positives throughout. The latest polling though, is all bit old and there has been nothing yet since Boris’s much hyped big address to the nation last Sunday evening. Things have been harder for him in the past few days. Whether…
Ministers struggling to maintain public support The above chart is based on the weekly YouGov polling in which those sampled are asked to state whether they approve or disapprove of the government. As can be seen at the start of the lockout there was considerable backing for what Johnson had done and the policies that were being pursued. This has now moved from a net 26% to 7% in the latest survey in seven weeks. It looks as though that…
As can be seen there is quite a divide between how the papers are reporting the TV address by the PM last night. The loyalists try to take the best view for Johnson while others point to the contradictions and difficulties. We’ll get a better idea after this goes to the Commons this afternoon when this will be presented to MPs. The Keir Starmer reaction is going to be key and certainly there are some obvious issues. I thought it…