Just three weeks and five days to go and overnight we have had the Vice Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Mike pence. I didn’t stay up to watch it but by all reports the biggest moment came when a fly landed on Pence’s head and seem to stay there for minutes. From the clips I’ve seen it looked a pretty even discussion and it is hard to see how this is going to change the trajectory of the race….
Everything points to Biden winning big. Believe it. Why do we not believe the evidence in front of us? Sometimes it’s because we don’t want to accept the bad news it reveals; sometimes it’s because we daren’t believe the good news for fear of jinxing it; it may be that we had our fingers burnt by believing something similar in the past which then turned out differently; or maybe the outcome is so far from our experiences that it feels…
My main betting on the White House Race has been on the SportingIndex spread betting markets. I bought at 284 Electoral College Votes and the latest split is SELL 307 and BUY 313. So I could, if I wanted, get out of my position this afternoon and get 23 times my stake even if, in the election itself, Biden does worse than that. Of course if the polling continues to be as good for Biden as the latest CNN poll…
The big politicalbetting news is that Betfair has now reopened its White House race markets which were temporarily closed before the weekend when Trump announced that he had contracted coronavirus. The period of the shutdown is reflected in the straight horizontal lines on the above chart showing how the market has moved over over the last month. We have had so much in this past week including the first TV debate and of course that not just Trump but quite…
One of the frustrations for people like me who love to bet on political outcomes has been the suspension by Betfair of its £100m next president market following the hospitalisation of Trump. Given that we are just four weeks and one day away from the election I think the firm is being over-cautious. I can see the argument that we could be betting on whether Trump survives but, as someone who for a time worked for the firm, I think…
Sometimes it’s worth asking a QTWTAIN even when you know the answer The ancient Greeks gave us many things. Democracy. Really long poems. The kebab*. Proof by contradiction. Let’s combine two of them now, in a manner of speaking, to look at where the US election might be going in the light of Donald Trump contracting Covid-19. Everyone should be wishing Donald Trump well right now. Those who want him to win, for obvious reasons; those who want him to…
Punters think the day’s developments are good for Biden
Betfair suspend next President market Big news in the last few minutes is that Trump has Tweeted that he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. This is what he wrote: Earlier in the night he had Tweeted that they were having a test. Clearly this will impact on the betting and Betfair have just suspended their next President market.