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Category: Betting

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

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The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…

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With the US Senate about to start the Trump impeachment process the latest tally has the ex-President surviving

With the US Senate about to start the Trump impeachment process the latest tally has the ex-President surviving

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My guess is that we will be checking back to this graphic in the Washington Post a fair bit in the next few days as the process to impeach former President Trump starts in the US Capitol building – the scene of the Trump inspired riot just 34 days ago that left five people dead. Each red block in the chart represents the view of a GOP Senator with yellow indicating position unknown. The Blue blocks are Democrats. At the…

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The Future Now – the biggest impact of COVID

The Future Now – the biggest impact of COVID

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Arguably the most significant science development of the last half century It’s always hard to know how the future will judge the present. Events which utterly dominated government policy and public discourse can be forgotten in a matter of years. Other events were passed by almost unnoticed at the time, and yet – in retrospect – seem incredibly important. So, here goes. 2020 and 2021 will be seen as a turning point. They will be considered watershed years: Before CV…

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What will Scotland’s historic victory Rugby victory do to the push for independence?

What will Scotland’s historic victory Rugby victory do to the push for independence?

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Judging by the last thread many PBers have spent the last few hours watching the opening matches in this year’s Six Nations. Given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections due for the first week of May I wonder whether Scotland’s first victory over England at Twickenham in 38 years is going to have a political impact. A former colleague of mine at the LSE in the 1990s was working on a thesis that linked the sporting success of Scotland…

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Why I am betting that Joe Biden will NOT be the Democratic nominee in 2024

Why I am betting that Joe Biden will NOT be the Democratic nominee in 2024

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Even though it is just over a fortnight since Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States the betting has opened on who will be the nominees for the parties and, of course, the winner in 2024. As can be seen on Smarkets which has a slightly bigger market at this stage than Betfair, Biden is rated as just a 25% chance. Historically this is quite remarkable because generally speaking the strong favourite after an…

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This Ridge interview with Johnson just three days before GE2019 looks problematical for the PM

This Ridge interview with Johnson just three days before GE2019 looks problematical for the PM

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The status of Northern Ireland in Johnson’s 2019 Brexit deal always had the potential to be problematical for ministers and as we have seen in the last couple of days things are coming to a head. There are those who take the view that the details of the Good Friday Agreement which brought the troubles to an end made any exit by the UK from the EU difficult to achieve. For how could the GFA’s commitment to what was effectively…

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With just three months to go before the Scottish elections a ratings boost for Sturgeon and the SNP

With just three months to go before the Scottish elections a ratings boost for Sturgeon and the SNP

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And dreadful figures for Salmond We don’t often see Scotland specific YouGov favourability ratings but these have just been published by YouGov. It is striking how much better Sturgeon is doing than her party. The numbers are broadly in line with what you would expect with Johnson and the Tories doing very badly. The only consolation for the PM is that the former Scottish First Minister, Salmond is doing even worse. Labour and Starmer are faring better but still no…

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The longer the EU row goes on the better it is for Hancock and Johnson

The longer the EU row goes on the better it is for Hancock and Johnson

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It just reminds the world that they were first The latest research on the effectiveness of the AZC/Oxford vaccine reinforces the kudos for Hancock in getting early supplies and being a media savvy politician it was he who was the minister doing the round of morning media appearance. For until this data came out this jab had been had been perceived as something second second-rate compared with the others that were available. You could see on Twitter and other social…

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