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Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee

Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee

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After his first big speech since leaving the White House Trump has now now moved to be clear favourite on the Smarkets exchange to get the GOP nomination for the WH2024 race. There was little doubt after his performance at the CPAC conference weekend that as far as he is concerned he is the major force within his party. For better or worse if the route in the party to getting preferment requires repeating Trump’s big election lies about WH2020…

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With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point since GE2019

With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point since GE2019

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Chart Wikipedia Could the Salmond-Sturgeon row impact on May’s elections? Probably the biggest elections taking place in the UK on the first Thursday of May are for the Scottish Parliament where a majority for the SNP could be important plank in its effort to have another referendum on the country being independent. If the latest poll by Survation for the Daily Record then opinion might just be moving away a touch from Nicola Sturgeon’s party. It has not been a…

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Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

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One of the things that is rarely done in polling analysis is to look at geographical breakdowns breakdown like in the chart above based on the latest Opinium poll. In this case it is really important to take notice of this because of the huge gulf that it portrays between how Johnson and Starmer are perceived in London compared with views a hundred or so miles up the motorway in the Midlands and then the North. The clear pattern is…

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Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

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The chart from BetData.io shows the 6-month trend on Betfair’s next prime minister market. Sunak and Starmer remain the top two but they are no longer as strong as they were. For Rishi there needs to be a Tory leadership contest and that almost certainly requires Boris to stand aside – something over which I am becoming less convinced about. Johnson, surely wants to fight another general election. But he won’t stay in that position forever and a great strength…

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You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days

You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days

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Chart Nate Silver One of the best political bets at the moment To me one of the best political bets about at the moment is that from Smarkets on Biden’s approval rating based on the fivethirtyeight average will be on April 29th – 100 days after he became President. The current odds of it being in the 50-54.9% range are about evens. What’s striking about the chart above is how little movement there has been in the first 36 days…

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Could WH2024 be a re-run of Biden v Trump

Could WH2024 be a re-run of Biden v Trump

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They are 2nd and 3rd in the betting in an interview with CNN the 20212 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, said that if Trump wanted to run again in 2024 he was sure that he would get the nomination. I think that this is right and that’s how the betting markets see it. On the other side 78 year old Joe Biden has not ruled out a second term and in the betting he is second favourite behind Kamala Harris to…

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In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

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Punters finally abandoning the unlikely independent The chart is from Smarkets and shows the deteriorating fortunes of the big surprise in the betting for May’s London Mayoral election – Brian Rose. At one stage when the betting was far less liquid he edged up to a 15% chance. As can be seen that is all over and the market is getting a tad too big for even the most loyal Rose supporter to keep the odds up. In this election,…

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The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

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Above is the chart on the Smarkets market over where Joe Biden’s first international visit as president will be. At the moment just about the total focus of the new administration has been on filling the key cabinet places and of course dealing with the COVID pandemic. One thing we do know however is that the new President will be attending the meeting of the G7 which is scheduled to be held in Cornwall in June. So assuming he goes…

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