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Category: Betting

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election

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The Bedata.io chart above shows what’s been happening on the Betfair next general election overall majority betting market. As can be seen a CON majority, now a 34% chance, has risen to its highest level in a year while a LAB majority has dropped to 22%. My guess is that the recent moves are in response to the positive polling news for the Tories. The thing I find remarkable is that even with one poll having the Tories 13% ahead…

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With 7 weeks to go before Scotland votes the latest three polls find voters opposed to another IndyRef

With 7 weeks to go before Scotland votes the latest three polls find voters opposed to another IndyRef

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The Wikipedia table shows the last few months of polling in Scotland on having another IndyRef similar to the one that voted NO in September 2014. For more than a year all the polls showed a desire for a fresh vote until the past two weeks. We will have to see if other Scottish polls follow a similar pattern but there is little doubt that the question of whether there should be another IndyRef looks sets the most important issue…

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Given what everybody is talking about it we probably need a thread on this

Given what everybody is talking about it we probably need a thread on this

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I had not planned to run a thread on tonight’s big interview but this is what everybody seems to be talking about so here it is. Like many, I guess, I follow the affairs of the Royal Family from the standpoint of Netfiix’s hit series “The Crown” – so about 20 years behind. and it is going to be many years before that will cover Prince Harry’s marriage to Meghan and all that followed. I thought the point made by…

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As schools in England re-open CON members give EdSec Williamson a MINUS 44% rating

As schools in England re-open CON members give EdSec Williamson a MINUS 44% rating

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A former Lib Dem anti-monarchy campaigner tops the list I always like this monthly table from ConsrrvativeHome which seeks to show what party members think of the Cabinet. This is one area where the EdSec Gavin Williamson has really struggled and as can be seen he is down to a net minus rating of 43.6% in the latest survey. These are terrible figures and must cast doubt his political future. In the betting Williamson is favourite to be the next…

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LOST IN THE WOODS: Labour’s Challenge for the 2020s

LOST IN THE WOODS: Labour’s Challenge for the 2020s

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Cards on the table – I don’t understand the Labour Party any more. I used to – a quarter century of membership, Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, Councillor. Then, like so many long-term Labour voters, I left the party. For an opposition these should be opportune times. A pandemic which has been particularly harsh in the UK thanks to a series of government bungles has not only seen far more deaths than should have been, but needless economic pain as well.  An…

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Sunak sees huge “Next PM” betting boost after his budget

Sunak sees huge “Next PM” betting boost after his budget

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market He’s increasing looking like the PM in waiting In the chart above is the latest betting from Betfair on who punters think will be the next prime minister based on where they are placing their money. The picture is very clear – in the space of a few hours after the budget Sunak moved up in the next PM betting from a 21% chance to a 29% one. The instant post budget polls have all…

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Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee

Trump now 22% favourite to be the WH2024 Republican nominee

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After his first big speech since leaving the White House Trump has now now moved to be clear favourite on the Smarkets exchange to get the GOP nomination for the WH2024 race. There was little doubt after his performance at the CPAC conference weekend that as far as he is concerned he is the major force within his party. For better or worse if the route in the party to getting preferment requires repeating Trump’s big election lies about WH2020…

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