politicalbetting.com

The above is from a range of polls that YouGov has been carrying out across Europe on how the AstraZeneca vaccine is perceived by the public in the major countries featured. It is perhaps not surprising given the comments made by Macron and Merkel that the most negative perceptions are in their countries. Maybe it is a bit of the not invented here syndrome but the perception gap is massive and not helped by the regular reports of almost empty…

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Moving from a 56-44 split in favour of independence to a 50-50 one is NOT a 12% swing I do not think that I am generally very pedantic but there is one issue that really gets under my skin and that is the incorrect use of the term “swing”. A classic came yesterday in the Sunday Times when a 56-44 Scottish polling lead for independence moved to a 50-50 split. As can be seen in the panel above the Sunday…

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It’s the only system that genuinely makes valid votes worthless The only exciting thing about the London mayoral election result this year is likely to be whether Sadiq Khan wins on the first vote or is forced into second preferences. He will not be close by Shaun Bailey or any of the many other candidates but may miss out on the 50% share needed to secure a first-preference win. That he might need a second round at all is because…

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Basically for what appears to be a fee £75 the former UKIP and Brexit Party leader will record a special personalised video which people can give as birthday presents and the like. Click on here see to see what it looks and sounds like. This is certainly original and looks as though it will be a good way of raising funds from his most committed supporters. In his promotional Tweet Farage is right – this is a great way of…

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The 2010s should tell us that radicalism and inexperience is no bar Joe Biden is 5/2 against to be the Democrats’ nominee for president in 2024. There has surely never been such long odds for a first-term elected president. Frankly, I think that’s huge value despite his age. Political leaders do not give up lightly and only got where they are because of tenacity and a considerable belief in themselves. But let’s suppose that he doesn’t stand (not least because…

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This is how The Scotsman is reporting the latest moves in Edinburgh: The First Minister is set to battle for the survival of her political career next week after the Scottish Conservatives announced plans to push for a no-confidence vote in the SNP leader on Wednesday. Douglas Ross’ party said that will give Ms Sturgeon a “last chance to resign” on Tuesday for allegedly misleading Parliament. If she does not do so, the party will proceed with a vote of…

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