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Burnham’s margin over the Tory is incredible Nobody can argue that the local elections that have taken place this week have been anything but poor for the official opposition. Labour has done badly and no doubt this will renew speculation about the future for Keir Starmer who only became leader thirteen months ago. By far the biggest success story for the party has been from former failed LAB leadership contender and shadow minister, Andy Burnham, who beat the Tory to…

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The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one. Clearly the former DPP has been struggling and today’s results make his position even harder. I was very struck by his manner during post-results press conference this afternoon. He looked shattered. He’s not helped by the social media onslaught by backers of Corbyn who seemed to be relishing the…

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A massive night to the Tories and a huge headache for Starmer After the overnight results in the Hartlepool by-election and several local council elections, things look very good for the Tories in the first set of elections since the general election. The Hartlepool by-election outcome had been widely predicted by the polling but the gap was even bigger. Survation’s final poll had the Tories winning by 17% while the actual result had the party winning by a 23.2% margin….

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And LAB is getting hammered in the locals All the signs are that Hartlepool is going blue by some margin and the latest news is that turnout is 42.8%. Elsewhere LAB has been seeing a huge number of council seat losses to the Tories but its performance is better in the results we have seen so far from the big cities. The main trend is that the UKIP vote from last time is almost all going to the Tories so…

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Home ownership – the issue that could eventually bring the government down? So, in the good old days there was a Left Wing party (which emphasised government action to minimise income differentials) and a Right Wing party (who preferred a less active state). But then a few things changed. Firstly, there was a (perhaps temporary) consensus about economics and the role of the state. And then there was “the culture wars”. Simply, (and completely simplifying) this was the idea that…

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Based on information that has been collated by Tory peer, Lord Hayward, the vast majority of authorities will not be counting on the night. This is a great pity and means that the early “story” of the election will be determined by those that are. The overnight counts that I am aware of are: Colchester Borough CouncilDerby City CouncilDudley MBC*Essex County Council – Brentwood, Chelmsford, Harlow, Rochford, Tendring, probably UttlesfordHartlepool Parliamentary By Election (Expected to declare around 4:00am)Harlow Borough CouncilMayor…

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