Both the Mail and the Express this morning try to paint a positive picture about COVID based on the declining numbers that we have seen in England over the past few days. Such headlines like the ones above might sell more copies or get clicks on their websites but are they being a bit too premature? We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more…
There’s a new academic analysis just been published which seeks to measure the effect of Trump backing certain Republican contenders in the 2018 midterm elections. This is how the academics involved summarise their findings: We find that President Trump was more likely to endorse candidates with a higher pre-endorsement likelihood of winning and to endorse candidates in more competitive races, suggesting the president used endorsements strategically both to try and help Republican candidates win and to boost his reputation for…
For a non-election campaign period, there has been a rush of polls all but one of which have the Tory lead narrowing. The most striking is from Survation that a week and a half ago had a CON lead of 11% – that’s now down to just two. Redfield & Wilton and YouGov have the lead at 4% with Deltapoll putting it at 5. The one that doesn’t fit the recent narrative has been Opinium which had the Tory lead…
He wants to curb the influence of the “childless left” An intriguing idea is being put forward by J.D Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy and Republican candidate for the vacant seat for Ohio on the US Senate. In an attack on what he terms the “childless left” he’s proposed a radical scheme to give parents of children under the age of 18 extra voting power. He’s quoted in The Week as saying: “The Democrats are talking about giving the…
There’s a big piece in the New York Times this morning by Trump biographer, Michael Wolff in which he suggests that the former President will put his hat into the ring for the 2024 nomination. He writes: To write three books in four years about Donald Trump has been an immersion into his obsessions and fixations. This is why I know the obvious: Donald Trump will run for president again.This spring, in another of his compulsive bids for attention —…
I’ve generally avoided the market on when Sir Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader because the year of the next general election is uncertain thanks to planned repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and talk of Boris Johnson planning to call a 2023 election. This market from Ladbrokes is much more easier for me, will Starmer be Labour Leader at the next election and my inclination is to back Yes. Given how hard it is force out a…
Overnight we have the latest Opinium poll for the Observer which includes the regular approval ratings. The chart takes the latest numbers by region and shows the changes since the firm’s May 13th poll when the PM’s “vaccine bounce” was at its peak. Thus in the May poll Johnson had a net positive rating in the Midlands of plus 29%. That is now down to minus 7 which makes a change over the two months of minus 36%. The figures…