Today’s Daily Mail is running a JL Partners poll carried out yesterday on the Afghan crisis and the findings are above. As can be seen the current US President and his predecessor get most of the blame in a survey that clearly reflects the nature of the coverage in the past 36 hours. There is a big British interest here given the role our armed forces have for the last two decades played in support of the US and the…
One of the things we sometimes ignore when a new poll comes out is how the party shares compare with the last general election and from that we can compute “swing”. Thus last night’s Redfield poll had LAB 4% behind the Tories which according to my analysis is the “sweet spot” which, could lead to Johnson losing his effective majority even taking into account Sinn Fein’s reluctance to take their seats. That margin on current boundaries would lead to a…
It is August and we are not getting very many surveys at the moment and indeed there is not that much domestic UK political news. As can be seen we have CON leads ranging from the 11% of Ipsos-MORI to 3% and 4% from Redfield. What is remarkably consistent is the CON share ranging from 40-42%. This is in sharp contrast to LAB where the range is 30% to 37% and the LDs with 7% to 13%. Ipsos-MORI is the…
Films from the 1960’s and 1970’s show Afghan women dressing and behaving much like women in the West. Not all women, of course. As in many countries, older attitudes were found in rural or isolated communities. Changes are never evenly distributed in a country. The same could be said of Iran. It seemed as if emancipation of women and what this meant for their ability to decide for themselves what to do with their lives was happening in countries far…
Should punters be be ruling out a second term? There’s is little doubt that the events in Afghanistan with the Taliban having now taken over just about all the major areas is going to hurt Biden politically. The big danger now is that he will go down as the one who “lost” and the consequences of that will be blamed on him. His strategy over the past month is in shambles particularly some of the optimistic statements he was making…
At the last election what was then Corbyn’s party came out with 203 MPs and since then Hartlepool has been lost. So to win on this bet what is now Starmer’s party has to gain 124 seats. That I would suggest is a huge ask and would be even if LAB was enjoying poll leads which of course it doesn’t have. This is one of those political bets that punters have got wrong. The main opposition party has a much…
Bookies will give you just 1/2 on the next election being in 2024, but longer than evens on Starmer being Labour leader that long. That doesn’t add up… Clearly the market thinks there is a significant chance (implied by these odds as being at least 20%) that Starmer never makes it to the next election. That risk is being massively overstated. History Let’s start with a simple question: How many Labour/Tory leaders have their been in the last 20 years…