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Before I head off for my Lake District holiday some thoughts on the big picture – the next UK general election. The critical thing about next time is whether the Tories can maintain a working majority and that means, I’d suggest, limiting seat losses to below 47. Last time the Tory GB vote share lead was 11.8% and polls indicating that it is closer than that point to Labour gains and Tory losses. We have had an interesting few months…

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In the betting Biden’s 2024 re-election odds fall to 19% In my view the most poignant front page is from the Daily Mail which reminds us of what Biden said when he announced his pull-out decision. I am beginning to wonder whether he will decide to run again next time when he will be 82. Generally, new presidents go onto to win re-election. Trump, of course, is an example of one who didn’t and the question marks over the current…

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After my piece yesterday suggesting that this week’s Redfield poll might be an outlier we’ve had two other Westminster VI poll out today. ComRes has a CON lead of 7% while Kantar has it down to 3%. As far as it is possible to make seat projections Kantar would suggest that Starmer could become PM in a minority government while Redfield would have another Tory majority. The best thing you can say is that at least the polls are not…

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Preventing the 8.8% pension rise would require legislation The former pensions minister during the Coalition government, Steve Webb, has made an acute observation about the government’s state pension triple lock dilemma – the law requires that the triple lock is applied. He noted in the I “People are still missing the fact that the law of the land requires earnings indexation when it comes to the State pension uplift..“Forget the triple lock, forget the manifesto pledge. There is a law…

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The RCP chart shows the trend in Biden’s average approval ratings which in the past few days have slumped into negative territory for the first time. Looking back the early days were the easy ones when large numbers of Americans, mostly shocked by the January 6th events, and were just grateful that Trump was no longer in the White House. This gave the country’s oldest President ever a great honeymoon when it came to the ratings. That has been in…

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The SNP hasn’t totally collapsed in Scotland Just looking at the figures in the latest Redfield poll it appears as though it is an outlier. Firstly the CON 43% looks too high compared with other recent surveys and then there is the SNP share. Just 3% is way below what the party achieved at GE2019 and what other polls have been reporting. As Nate Silver is always pointing out we should expect outliers. Indeed pollsters which never produce them should…

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The above data splits from the latest Opinium approval ratings of the PM show just how Brexit continues to totally dominate views of Johnson. Very helpfully Opinium produces a regular split in their data tables separating out by social class linked to Brexit vote. The above from the latest poll is, I think, the worst it has been for the PM from both ABC1 and C2DE Remainers. Net ratings of minus 43 and 49 are very poor particularly as we…

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