politicalbetting.com

Undoubtedly the Conservatives are doing very well at the stage to be maintaining the poll lead over Labour and the question must arise as to whether the prime minister will decide to go for it early before things like the tax rises due for next spring come into effect? No doubt we are going to see increasing media speculation over this but I am not convinced – mind you I wasn’t convinced in April 2017 when TMay surprised us all…

Read More Read More

If others follow YouGov then a BoJo win – but will they?

Above is the chart showing the changes on the betting markets for the next general election over the past year and as can be seen a hung Parliament remains the favourite with things having not really changed that much during the conferences. As I have stated before I think the betting number that is wrong here is on a Labour majority because the sheer scale of the task facing Starmer’s party is so great that it is very difficult seeing…

Read More Read More

Like last week’s Starmer speech poll this latest had the pollster Opinium, showing 1,305 voters, key sections of today’s and then asking them the same questions. This is from the Sky News report linked to in the Tweet above: After watching Mr Johnson’s speech, 51% said they agreed with what he had to say against 41% who did not. Some 53% said the prime minister came across as strong, while 30% said he came across as weak.And 49% said he…

Read More Read More

I’m sure on a visceral level the speech will go down a hit in the polls and the country but substantively in the week universal credit is cut and gas prices seem to rise ever more it might be misjudged in the future, but my betting position remains the same, the Conservatives are on course to win the most seats at the next election based on past polling precedents. TSE

Her main chance is if she becomes President before the election From the point that Biden announced that Harris was to be his VP nominee the former Senator from California has been strong in the betting for the WH2024 nomination. In my view punters are over-stating her chances. She can become President in two ways: First: if for whatever reason Biden is unable to complete his first term. In that situation she would go into the WH2024 nomination process as…

Read More Read More

One thing we have seen from council elections and Westminster by-elections this year is how different the outcomes are in Remain and Leave seats. If Hartlepool (Leave 69.57%) was a doodle for an easy CON gain Chesham and Amersham (44.9% Leave) saw a totally different electoral dynamic. Now the Tories are hoping that Britain will return to the previous CON/LAB/LD splits at the next election. But it could be that the Brexit outcome continues to be a dominant factor and…

Read More Read More