Those saying Brexit right down to just 38%
The second lowest level since the referendum The same YouGov poll that had the CON lead back in double figures also had what for the government is the second-worst Brexit tracker finding on record. The latest split is in the chart above. This is a tracker that was started in the aftermath of the outcome in June 2016 and has been repeatedly asked by the pollster since. One feature we have seen in this polling is that women are taking…
My money is on these people giving Boris a bloody nose
I got on at 20/1 – the same as my first C&A LD bet Smarkets have just opened their market on the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election and the initial odds are very similar to the start of betting Chesham and Amersham in May. I have had a punt on Labour at 20/1 which is the same as my first at Chesham. Quite simply this the best opportunity about at the moment for Labour to do anything that could stall…
YouGov has the worst LAB VI but Starmer closest as “Best PM”
Eh? The latest YouGov poll has CON up to a double digit lead which as can be seen above is totally out of line with other firms. Looking at the detail the Tory share is within the same range as other firms but YouGov’s Green total is markedly higher and the LAB one markedly less. Quite why this should be is hard to say. Maybe it is a sampling issue or it could be down to how YouGov asks it…
Leicester East – a possible by-election?
Labour is calling on Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe to quit her seat after she was found guilty of a campaign of harassment including threatening an acid attack. At GE2019 she stood for Labour in Leicester East but now is an independent. Whether there is a by -election depends on either the severity of her sentence or her deciding to stand down. She is, though, planning an appeal which could overturn her conviction. At GE2019 the seat saw a huge…
Trump becomes betting favourite to win WH2024
This must be unprecedented. Donald Trump who lost the presidency in last November’s election has now become favourite to win it back in November 2024. This is only in the betting but it is how those who risk their money betting on political outcomes see it and the chart shows the movement that there has been since last November. I am far from convinced that Trump has a winning path to win the nomination. A problem during the primaries is…
At 20% both Trump and Biden are value in the WH2024 betting
You might have to lock your cash up for just over three years but you could at current prices go into the November 2024 White House election with bets on the two main contenders at odds of 20% each. My main worry here would be Biden who could quite easily not be a runner whether on health grounds or that he doesn’t feel able to carry on. Trump is looking increasingly certain for the GOP nomination.
The polls have been so static it’s hard to bet on a LAB lead in 3 weeks
One of the regular markets that Smarkets is now putting up is whether Labour will get a poll lead within a set period. I got on yes in the first market which covered the whole period between August and the end of the year. This proved to be a winner for as a result of that solitary LAB lead in mid-September. Since then the betting exchange has gone on to put up regular markets and I think that the latest…