For the Tories Bexley & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time
At GE2019 the Tories won 64.5% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with LAB on just 23.5% so on the face of it a “certain” CON hold. Yet that is not how it is seen. Starmer’s party is throwing a lot at the seat and clearly, the political climate for a Tory defence is far from ideal. Inevitably corruption and MPs second jobs have evolved as key issues. When the Tories held the seat at GE2019 the overall…
Date for your diary: PB Gathering – Feb 3rd 2022
It has been a long time coming but I am delighted to announce that the first PB Gathering since before GE2017 is scheduled to take place on February 3rd next year. Smarkets, the betting exchange that is expanding rapidly in political markets, have agreed to host the event at their offices close to the Tower of London. Thanks to Quincel (Pip Moss) and to Matthew Shaddick of Smarkets for driving this. In the past, these events have been a great…
Johnson’s great HS3 gamble
The Northern media gears up for a fight As seen above six leading regional newspapers from Tyneside to Manchester all had similar front pages as part of a coordinated last ditch effort to save Northern Powerhouse Rail which looks as though it will be ditched on Thursday by the government. The move by the papers should be seen as a warniing to ministers of the likely political reaction. This is a project that includes HS3 between Manchester and Leeds with…
In terms of dates the ComRes LAB 6% lead poll is still the latest
I was a bit disappointed at the weekend that the only new poll was Opinium for the Observer and that had fieldwork dates of November 10-12 compared with the ComRes November 11-12. Generally, with internet polls the bulk of the sample responds on the first day of fieldwork so it is hard to compare Opinium with ComRes. On the face of it the latter with its 40% LAB share looks like it could be an outlier but we do need…
A Johnson exit in 2022 moving up in the betting
The recent record lows in Johnson’s leadership ratings and LAB taking the lead have sparked off a flurry of activity in several betting markets including the year in which Johnson will go. Although it is down a bit “2024 or later” is still the favourite but it is no longer odds-on and as can be seen 2022 is moving upwards. I’m sure that most PBers are familiar with the Tory party leadership rules which make ousting a leader a lot…
Sleazy does it
For those of us who campaigned for the Tories in the 1997/2001/2005 general elections we can attest how corrosive sleaze was to the Tory cause. It probably took a decade plus of a Labour government, led by that pretty straight sort of guy Tony Blair, for perceptions of sleaze to be more associated with Labour than the Tories, like an STD, sleaze is bloody difficult for the Tories to get rid off. With Boris Johnson’s leadership risking turning the mother…
Grilled Sturgeon
What happens if there is no indyref2 before the next Holyrood election? I am of the view that the SNP (and other secessionist parties) have several mandates going back to 2016 which allows them to demand indyref2 because of Scotland being dragged out of the EU against her will. But what I think as Englishman is irrelevant, what matters is the views of the SNP and independence voters and supporters. Will they really enjoy not having the indyref2 they were…