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Punters overstating the Tories again? One thing we learned about betting on recent by-elections is that punters overstate Tory chances. Heaven knows why I was allowed to bet several hundred pounds on the exchanges at an effective 20/1 that the LDs would win Chesham and Amersham. Some gamblers took a big hit there. We saw a similar pattern with Batley and Spen though admittedly the outcome was a lot closer. Now we have got the December by-elections and with the…

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There has been a big shake-up in the next Labour leader betting following last night’s shadow cabinet changes. The new shadow Home secretary, Yvette Cooper is now third favourite behind Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, and the former MP Andy Burnham who is no longer an MP I find myself never quite understanding the betting appeal of Andy Burnham who was a total flop in the two Labour leadership elections one of which saw Jeremy Corbyn end up as winner….

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The December ConHome satisfaction ratings or just out and see a big drop for the prime minister who is now in deep negative territory in the latest monthly survey of what Conservative party members are thinking. These ratings have been carried out almost since ConHome established itself a few months after PB was founded in 2004 and are seen as a good guide to what the membership is thinking. All this comes after a very bad month for BJ following…

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So today we have seen the first major shadow cabinet reshuffle by Keir Starmer underlining the fact that he is very confident now of his position as Labour leader. Would he have felt able to axe several ministers who came to the fore in the Corbyn years if the polling gap with the Tories had not closed? Remember he took over in April 2020 when LAB was up to 26% behind His line up includes many big names from yesteryear…

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I’ve just come across a BBC News report on Thursday’s Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election which has the remarkable claim by ReformUK that the party has knocked on 90% of doors in the seat. I find this hard to believe because it is a massive task for any party to achieve that level of penetration in a Westminster by-election. This is from the BBC News report: Reform UK – formerly the Brexit Party – may no longer have Nigel Farage…

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The pressure mounts with 3 days to go The message from the betting markets is that punters are staying with the Tories to hold onto Old Bexley and Sidcup in the first of the party’s two December by-election defences. As can be seen from the Smarkets chart BJ’s party is currently rated at a near 92% chance on the betting exchange. On the ground the word is that the Tories are taking nothing for granted and top figures, including the…

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This is the second part of a thread on estimating Conservative seat numbers at the next election.  It contains statistical analysis: those not interested can skip to the Conclusion. Model The data in the previous part of this thread does seem to support our hypothesis that extreme results for the Conservatives are unlikely: in all bar one of the twenty-two elections, they have won between 25% and 75% of the seats, and in fourteen of them, their share has been…

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One of the interesting bets currently available is on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority at the next election.  The markets were pricing this at 36% on 19 November, down from evens in July.  The general consensus is that an election is highly unlikely for eighteen months at least.  Long-term readers of this site may recall me arguing that you can’t predict the result of an election from mid-term opinion polls or leader ratings.  Nevertheless, the decline in the…

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