Last week the worst kept secret in French politics finally ended, as Eric Zemmour declared he was running for President. The far-right polemicist has raised a crescendo of media coverage, but quietly his polling might already have peaked. Two months ago, when I first discussed the French election, I argued that Marine Le Pen was a value bet so long as she could hold off Zemmour and (re)unify the French hard right. And in recent weeks, she looks to be…
There was a time when a Lib Dem lost deposit at a Westminster by-election was seen by commentators as evidence of decline. Well no more. The chart shows the party’s shares at the four English by-elections so far in 2021 which illustrates the strategy and how it is working. Given how totally dominant the Tories have been over the past decade or the main aim of what used to be dubbed the “third party” has been to try to win…
And Tice barely has an impact So a very comfortable night for the Tories easily holding on in the second Tory by-election defence of this parliament. This is the first hold for the party since Sleaford and North Hykeham almost exactly five years ago. Sure there has been a 10.2% CON to LAB swing on the GE2019 but this election has taken place mid-term during the worst spell of the BJ premiership when you would have thought the party could have…
The result’s expected in the early hours
Apart from the by-elections one of the bigger political betting markets remains on the BJ exit date. This is something that is speculated all the time with those opposed to the current PM tending more to predict an early exit. Former PBer Alastair Meeks had this on his blog: I’d make it about a 60% chance that he will be ousted before the next election. Right now Betfair makes it about a 20% chance that he’ll be replaced by 1…
In Bexley the Tory price has barely moved In North Shropshire the LDs have been edging up Both charts are from Smarkets which now has the widest range of political betting markets.
Tomorrow sees the first of the December by-elections in the outer London seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup which was held by the Tories at GE2019 with a majority of 40% plus. It is what happened last time that is driving the betting that currently rates the Tory chance at 91%. This, I believe, ignores the current troubles for the party and it leader. This is only the second Tory by-election defence since GE2019. The first was in Chesham and…
The data in the above Tweet was sent out in a “confidential” email to members and inevitably it has leaked which probably was the intention! I am told that this is accurate information based on the canvassing returns so far in the December 16th by-election. The campaign aim is to persuade Labour and Green supporters to switch their votes to the LDs. It is also to persuade activists not to take their foot off the gas and to potential voters…