Tomorrow Johnson’s job could be at risk In the early hours of tomorrow morning, we should get the North Shropshire result – a by-election that has taken on a huge significance with the PM’s job possibly being on the line if this is not a CON hold. In the clip above veteran by-election watcher, Michael Crick, presses the Tory candidate who seems very reluctant to answer direct questions on the PM’s integrity. If, and it is a very big if,…
Based on almost all the the by-election betting in the past year the betting markets have not been good prediction tools. These are wise words from Paul of the Poiticalgambler blog I will say it again. There really is nothing quite like a British by-election! The speculation and rumours are made for betting drama and the experts are frequently wrong..Remember Chesham and Amersham, where the Tories were [1.1] before losing by a 20% margin? Or Batley and Spen, where they were [1.25] before Labour…
After the huge rebellion of Tory MPs last night against BJ’s Covid plans the chances of BJ going early, perhaps next year appears increasingly likely. That is how punters are seeing it as the betdata.io betting chart shows. This is not the only big challenge that BJ has to cope with this week. Given what happened last night and the PM’s less than confident recent PMQ appearances then facing Starmer at lunchtime looks even trickier than usual. Then there is…
Quite why there has been a sharp move in the betting I do not know but as can be seen something has driven the market this afternoon. As those who have read my previous posts I had thought that the Lib Dem odds had just got too tight and maybe others are reading that as well. If anybody has any info please post it on the thread.
What I find interesting looking at the above table is just how well the Tories were doing in the early summer around the time of the Hartlepool by-election which of course became a Labour loss and a Conservative gain. This, f course, was at the peak of the vaccine bounce when Johnson’s government was getting the credit for the vaccine programme. That was not to stop the Tory loss the following month in the Chesham and Amersham by-election when there…
Although I think that the LDs have a good chance in Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election I am not tempted by the current odds which currently rate the party’s chances at 61%. Even though we know that the party is “good” at Westminster by-elections this is far too tight. I would rate the party’s chances at evens but no tighter. In any case I got on Davey’s party at 5 and longer at the start of the campaign so will get…
Dreadful figures for Number 10 from Ipsos MORI What is remarkable about this is that generally, the incumbent PM gets a polling bonus when compared to the Opposition leader. This is the analysis of Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI: Boris Johnson and the Conservatives are feeling the chill. Of course it is still only mid-term and things can change, but people told us they cared about the Downing St Xmas party, and the last few weeks…