The above chart has been created to show two very big trends that we can now map from the two by-elections that we have seen this December. The first is that Tory voters are much more ready to switch to the LDs when Davey’s party is in the ascendency and the second is that both LAB and LD supporters are ready to vote tactically when the perceived situation in their seats demands it. Thus in Old Bexley the LD vote…
“What is the point of them going to all these posh schools if they don’t think?” This was Daughter’s comment this (Saturday) morning at the latest suggestion that pubs and restaurants can operate outdoors. In January. In temperatures often at or below freezing in large parts of the country. In the rain, wind (remember Storm Arwen), snow or ice. When you can often not even see outside your own home. The photo for this header is the view from my…
In the previous header Quincel looked at the possibility of the Domonic Raab losing his seat if the LDs do well in the seats where they are competitive. One of the things the by-elections have shown is that after nearly a decade of Tory rule many voters will be very flexible in their choice in order defeat Johnson’s party. One of the characteristics of the possible LD targets listed above is a highish proportion of graduates. Most of those in…
By-elections tend to be grossly over interpreted. Boris Johnson is more likely than people think to shrug this off and govern until the next election, and even to turn it around and win that election (stunning mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair). But it was still a big kick in the teeth for him, and one I thought was unlikely. Still, whether North Shropshire means Johnson will be gone by the summer or not it…
How far are we off a contest? Undoubtedly this has been a bad week also for the prime minister and the question is being asked all the time as to whether his period as PM could soon be over. A sign of how difficult things are is that there is a focus at the moment on who would succeed him if by any chance he was forced out of decided of his own accord to call it a day. At…
By any standards the North Shropshire outcome will go down as one of the most sensational by-elections in decades with the LDs jumping from third place to win this Leave-voting agricultural seat with a huge swing that almost outdoes Christchurch of 1993. The result when it came wasn’t even close and saw a huge drop in the Tory vote with the LAB GE2019 vote more than halved. This is terrible for the Tories and the PM and completely knocks on…