One of the features of Boris Johnson’s approval ratings over the last few months is that however bad it has got with younger voters he has been in positive territory amongst the oldies. That has now come to an end. The above chart is based on the latest Redfield & Wilton polling where the fieldwork took place in Monday – so it is totally up to date. As can be seen it is the middle-aged who are most disapproving of…
Remember Eastbourne in 1990 So far there has been no reaction on the Johnson exit date markets to the two by-elections that are due to take place on June 23rd. It is almost as if the likely Tory losses are factored in, But what if the Tory performance is far far worse then anything that is being envisaged? Could that send the parliamentary party into a panic? In many ways Westminster by-elections are much closer to home for MPs than…
It’s a 66% betting chance that the Tories will lose both Given the extraordinary level of resources that parties put into key by-elections, I am a bit surprised that the Tories have chosen to hold them on the same day – Thursday, June 23rd. Maybe the view is having two lots of bad news at the same time might be more easily forgotten. If the betting markets have this right then there’s a strong odds-on chance that both will be…
For 5 years every by-election winner has been female Westminster by-elections don’t come round very often but when they do the main parties put in a big effort to defend or gain seats. A key factor in a race is the candidate and party machines go to great lengths to ensure that the person they select is right for the seat and for activists to get behind. At the weekend the LDs made their choice for Tory-held Tiverton and Honiton…
But could the Gray report shift this?
A big issue that’s being discussed on the talk shows today is home working and Johnson’s effort to get people back inside their offices. All this follows the turmoil created by the measures to control COVID which necessitated office blocks being closed and staff trying to continue by working in their own living rooms. His comments come as fellow old-Etonian, JRM, managed to get a picture of himself at his desk without a computer to be seen and the reports…
Although it is less than 2 years since the last White House Race the betting markets on who will be the parties’ nominees and who will win in 2024 are very active. The big question is whether the incumbent, Joe Biden who will be 80 shortly after November’s midterms, is going to run again. A problem for him is that once has said that he is standing aside he becomes a lame duck. I take the view that at some…
Picture: Sir Keir Starmer continues the tradition of party leaders to have illicit curries. Last week I wrote a thread about the possibility of Sir Keir Starmer getting fined for his potential dodgy curry last year. I think another vulnerability for Starmer is that sector where Durham Constabulary think a breach occurred but decide not to issue a FPN which would allow Starmer some wiggle room on not having to resign. If that happens and Starmer tries to cling on…