Punters are very certain that’ll change next week In looking over the prospects for next week’s Wakefield by-election it comes as quite a surprise to discover that the last time that LAB made a by-election game was in 2012. This was at Corby in November of that year to fill a vacancy created by the CON MP, Louise Bagshaw resigning her seat for family reasons. Labour turned a 1,951 deficit at GE2010 into a majority of 7,791 – a CON-LAB…
For those us who believe in egalitarianism and democracy, having an unelected head of state is an obscenity, after all we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or prime ministers? There’s hope that when Prince Charles ascends to the throne he will do more for ending the monarchy in this country since Richard Cromwell. Whilst Prince Charles has correctly assessed Priti Patel’s Rwandan policy is awful he really should keep his thoughts to himself, it is a disturbing trend from the Royals…
I really do enjoy the betting opportunities that Smarkets give us when it comes to opinion polls. Looking at last night’s poll from Opinium which gave Labour a mere 2% lead, and with another Opinium due in a fortnight I can understand why the 20 on June being the month of the next Tory poll lead will seem attractive to many. The ongoing cost of living crisis makes me dubious on backing any Tory lead in the short term but…
In an excellent piece in the I the paper’s Chief Political Commentator, Paul Waugh, sets out the mechanics of how Johnson could face a confidence vote from the Tory grassroots. According to Waugh under an obscure clause in the party’s constitution “ just 65 constituency chairmen are needed to trigger an Extraordinary General Meeting of the National Conservative Convention (NCC), the 800-strong body that represents the Tory grassroots.” Such a vote would not be binding on Johnson but it would clearly…
After a week in which Johnson easily survived the attempt by some Conservative MP’s to oust him inevitably the PM exit year betting market has moved sharply. As can be seen, him going in 2024 or later is now favourite with an exit this year down to just 27%. Clearly what is being priced in are Tory losses in the June 23rd by-elections. In the Wakefield market punters now give LAB a 98% chance of winning while in Tiverton and…
Sunak is no longer the great hope The Redfield and Wilton Strategies chart tells the story of the last two and a bit years in UK politics from the perspective of the Johnson and Starmer net approval ratings. The latest poll out today has the LAB leader just in negative territory but a net 22% ahead of the PM. The other player recorded here is Sunak who is doing better than his boss but still trails Starmer. From the voting…
Writing in the Guardian, Peter Kellner asserts that “it is common knowledge that final election polls are sometimes tweaked”. This should not come as a particular surprise. For a few days before an election, the one place neither a pollster nor the client wish to be is out of line with all the others, whether that means all the others have got it right or wrong. Sticking to ones methodological guns, carefully developed over the previous years, requires courage. I…
One of the factors that could have an impact on the Tory defence of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on June 23rd is that this is one of the days earmarked for the national rail strikes at the end of June. A big factor in the LD campaign so far has been the really excellent rail links that Tiverton has as can be seen in the London to Tirverton Parkway time-table above. Every hour there is a service from London,…