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At the next general election which will happen in the next couple of years, the incumbent Tory Party will be facing two very different factions and this was seen in last week’s by-elections. First there will be straight battles with LAB to retain many of the seats won by the Tories in December 2019. Second, there will be those seats where the LDs now fancy their chances following three major gains from CON in just over a year. This includes…

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Prior to the result in Tiverton & Honiton YouGov published the above polling analysis about the potential Tory losses in the South West of the United Kingdom and the result from Tiverton & Honiton will only exacerbate Boris Johnson’s problems. It isn’t unkind nor unfair to describe the current cabinet is a cabinet of political eunuchs but if the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and George Eustice start worrying about losing their seats then they might force Boris Johnson, after all…

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Whilst replacing Boris Johnson as Tory leader is likely to improve the Tory performance in the polls (unless they replace him with the ludicrous popinjay Jacob Rees-Mogg or the ghastly Priti Patel) however they if the party replaces him with someone more palatable to the country then that will not be enough to win the next election. The new leader will also need some new policies, given the prevailing economic headwinds there may well be very little room for them…

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This’ll hurt the GOP in the Midterms This week’s decision by SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade is set to dominate US politics for months and if not years. Overall as this US YouGov poll shows the split is 51% to 37% against what the court has done. The danger for the GOP as we head into the November midterms is that this will be a big turnout driver for a segment of the electorate who generally have lower turnout…

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After the terrible by-election results for the Conservatives, many commentators are suggesting that the time is up for Johnson. Yet as the chart shows that although there has been an uplift in the betting chances of a 2022 exit it is still rated at just a 41% chance. In the papers this morning there lots of theories about how Johnson will be going soon and how the exit would be effectively forced on him. The resignation of Oliver Dowsett is…

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The big thing about the two by-elections is that LAB hardly tried in Tiverton & Honiton while the LDs did the same in Wakefield. So both opposition parties lost their deposits in the by-election that they didn’t win. The Tories, meanwhile, were in second place in both. A question is whether the high level of tactical voting in these and other target seats for the LDs and LAB will carry over at the general election. My guess is that it…

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The big problem the PM and his team have this afternoon is that yesterday’s by-elections were worse for the party than expectations. Inevitably the focus is on whether Johnson can survive. He is indeed fortunate that there was a confidence vote on him two and a half weeks ago and under the current rules there cannot be another one amongst this parliamentary party until June next year. At the time of this month’s vote, cynics were suggesting that Number 10…

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The big message from the results overnight is that voters are wanting to get Johnson out and will go with the party that is most most likely to achieve that objective. Thus the LDs had their historic recording-breaking victory in Tiverton and Honiton but went on to lose their deposit (getting less than 5%)in Wakefield. In the latter LAB the party had its expected gain from the Tories while it was LDs who lost their deposit. So the notion of…

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