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Although it is less than 3-weeks since Liz Truss became the leader of the Conservative Party and was made Prime Minister the betting markets are still far from convinced that she will lead the party to victory in the general election. Although the few voting intention polls since she entered Number 10 have moved a touch towards the Conservatives the party still remains far behind in the eyes of punters as being a favourite to be PM after the general…

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The first Ipsos poll of the Truss era One great thing about Ipsos which used to be MORI is that it has been polling in the UK since the 1970s and has massive historical database on which we can compare things The latest poll from the firm has the Tories doing slightly better but still 10% behind labour. For me the interesting the interesting part is that which is featured in the chart above showing how different Prime Ministers who…

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Now the Dems edge into the lead Of all the elections in the US taking place on November 8th one that is particularly important is for the House of Representatives where currently the Democrats have a small majority. What the polling chart above shows is that for most of the time in the last few months the Republicans have been polling markedly better than the Democrats. This has now changed. It should be noted here that the question is a…

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The markets make it a 22% chance that she won’t Over the last few days we have seen a series of policy speeches by Liz truss which seem to set her government on course to be the most right wing one in recent times. Her policy agenda is almost totally different from that which was in GE2019 manifesto and it can be argued that she has no mandate at all. Quite what the parliamentary Conservative Party makes of it we…

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More GE2019 CON voters say they are backing her party LizT has been Prime Minister for just over 3 weeks and I have been skimming the polling trends to see if we can conclude whether she is making a difference Although LAB still has double-digit leads in 4 of the last 6 pollsters to report there are what might be promising indications for Truss when you look at the detail. Until the change of leadership, the Tories were struggling to…

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It looks as though the next Westminster by-election will be in the West Lancs seat which was held by Rosie Cooper for the Labour party with a 16% majority at the last election. She is planning to stand aside because she has accepted a new role as chair of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust. Looking at the numbers it is hard to see anything in this for the Lib Dems or the Tories and my pretty firm prediction is that…

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The demise of the Queen has totally dominated the news for the first fortnight of the premiership of Liz Truss that it is hard to come to any conclusions about the way things are going or how she is being perceived. What is clear is that the first state funeral since Churchill has effectively led to her being deprived of a normal honeymoon that new prime ministers generally enjoy. Whether she can make up for this now the funeral is…

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Could someone who’d be 82 actually do it? The visit of Joe Biden to the UK for the funeral of the Queen has prompted me to do a piece that I’ve been meaning to write for some weeks – is the incumbent President who will be 80 in November going to put his hat into the ring for the 2024 presidential race? I have just watched an interview with him in which he was pressed hard on the subject and…

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