Before Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation yesterday’s big news was Sir Keir Starmer banning two time general election loser Jeremy Corbyn as standing as an official Labour candidate at the next general election. I think this is a smart move by Starmer as evidenced by the polling above, it is supported by the people (Tories, Lib Dems, and Leavers) who needs to win over to become Prime Minister. It shows the country that the Labour Party under Starmer has made a clean…
This morning’s shock news that Nicola Sturgeon is stepping down as the Scottish first minister and leader of the SNP inevitably reduces what chances there were of an early second independence referendum. The move also makes it a bit easier for Scottish labour in a UK general election. It will be recalled how Scottish politics was totally changed by the initial independence referendum in September 2014. At the 2010 General Election LAB managed to secure 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats….
The SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to resign at a press conference which is scheduled for 11 this morning. This follows a period when her leadership has come under pressure over the way that her party pushed through the highly controversial gender recognition Bill through the Scottish Parliament. This was set to lead to a massive confrontation with Westminster because the Sunak government was totally opposed to the measure. Mike Smithson
But is this taking it too far? The Smarkets chart shows how the betting on the next general election outcome has been moving and as can be seen there has been a sharpish switch to a Labour majority. This is almost totally in reaction to the opinion polls and also the three by-elections in Labour seats that we’ve had since the start of December. The big thing in British politics in the last 4 months has been the arrival of…
The survey of Scottish voters was carried out by Lord Ashcroft polls
What makes this interesting is that Nikki Haley was the Ambassador to the United Nations who was appointed by Trump when he was President. So she is taking on her former boss who has already declared. In the betting she has moved sharply and is now 12/1 on Betfair for the nomination. I rate her highly and believe she will give Trump a. run for his money. Mike Smithson
I have been trying to envisage the electoral outcome under which Starmer doesn’t become PM. Let’s assume for a moment that there is a big recovery for the Tories and they come out of the general election as top party but below the threshold required for them to have a majority. By my reckoning if the Tory losses are more than 47 seats Starmer could become Prime Minister of a minority government even if his party came second on seats…