politicalbetting.com

It’s very rare indeed for any polling company to admit to making an error that has skewed a published poll. So rare indeed that we might speculate that whenever a polling company itself discovered an error in the past, the company concerned kept quiet and hoped that no-one else had noticed other than to assume that any unusually rogue result was down to sampling error or the like. Better to keep quiet than to suffer reputational damage by admitting an…

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The big move in US Politics of late has been back to Trump for the 2024 Republican Party nomination. At the same time, there has been a decline in the betting on the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis. But there is still a long way to go and we are more than 10 months away from the first state primary. Got a feeling now that we might just be we see a rematch of 2020 Trump vs Biden – two very…

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Above are the latest odds for the SNP leadership election and as can be seen this is now a two horse race between Yiusaf and Forbes. In the absence of any SNP members polling this is about the best info there is and the question is have punters got this right or not. I think Forbes is the better one when it comes to how they come over and how I think they would perform in elections. Mike Smithson

Before the weekend my old friend Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, was in town as part of his party’s local elections campaign and I managed to speak to him about the party’s objectives at the next general election. His big challenge is one of visibility and that has been seriously undermined by the rise and rise of the SNP in Scotland. Under the Commons rules the third party leader gets to ask two questions at PMQs every week while…

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39 of the 40 seats polled were won by CON at GE2019. The other one, Hartlepool, was picked up by the Tories in a by-election. The numbers here are very striking even though there has been a narrowing of the LAB lead since the last R&W RedWall poll. The big thing, of course, is that the LAB leader is no longer Corbyn and the Tories were very able at exploiting the “threat” he posed in the GE2019 campaign. For all…

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The voting polls have continued to be miserable for the Tories and we are not seeing any real sign of a change since the Windsor agreement last week. You can just feel the frustration from the Tory camp at the moment that apparently nothing they can do actually shifts the vote share polling numbers. In the leader ratings Sunak continues to trail Starmer and as to the best PM polling questions again the Tory leader finds himself in second place….

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