Browsed by
Category: Article 50

Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year

Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year

Comments 0 Comment

And 4/1 that Remain would win Given how difficult Johnson has had in winning votes in the House of Commons this morning’s Queen’s Speech had a touch a fantasy about it. His Government is in a minority and thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act he is unable to call a general election to ameliorate the situation. So having the monarch with all the ceremonial trappings listing the legislative plans was a bit it strange given there are simply not the…

Read More Read More

2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

Comments 0 Comment

On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot. I’ve never been convinced of December because staging such a vote when the day’s are shortest and voters attentions are focused on the holiday never looked like a possibility. Meanwhile Corbyn has announced that he’ll step down as LAB leader if his party…

Read More Read More

The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

Comments 0 Comment

A UK Brexit by the end of the year now 38% betting favourite Judging by today’s front pages the prospect for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU look better than ever. Certainly Johnson’s meeting with his Irish counterpart on the Wirral yesterday looks very promising but at the moment we do not know exactly what concessions have been made and whether that will be acceptable to the DUP. A political problem of course is that there are…

Read More Read More

It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

Comments 0 Comment

If the front pages have this right then the chances of Johnson getting his deal through look very thin indeed and so the only options remaining are a no-deal Brexit or else it’s an Article 50 extension. The latter,  of course, would breach the the deadlines that Johnson set for himself on taking over at Number 10 and the consequences of such a move are very hard to fathom. The big plan, I guess, is for there to be an…

Read More Read More

On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU

On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU

Comments 0 Comment

There are too many examples in political betting when favourites have not won to make the assertion that betting can be predictive. What historical trends do show, as in the above betdata.io chart, is how those ready to risk their cash on the Betfair exchange are seeing things at a given moment. As is reflected above over the past six months there have been periods when the money has been going on a UK exit happening first and when a…

Read More Read More

With 23 days to go punters make it a 21% chance that the UK will leave the EU this month

With 23 days to go punters make it a 21% chance that the UK will leave the EU this month

Comments 0 Comment

And another ex-CON MP joins the LDs This is all getting very tight. A new working day starts and there are just 23 to go before the article 50 deadline comes into being with the UK either leaving the EU or a further extension is agreed to. The above betdata.io chart shows that the betting money on Betfair going on the UK not actually leaving on the due date. This is the busiest current UK political betting market and I…

Read More Read More

The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

Comments 0 Comment

Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today’s deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result – taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK. — Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 8, 2017 Johnson Tweet from December 2017 The dozy reaction to the Joint Report has misframed Brexit ever since Why does a dog not bark when…

Read More Read More

Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%

Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%

Comments 0 Comment

But read the detailed betting rules The big Brexit betting market as seen above in the betdata.io chart is whether Johnson will achieve his objective of an October 31st exit as per the Article 50 deadline. Like in all political bets it is important to read Betfair’s  detailed rules of the market which in this case are: “For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply…

Read More Read More