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Category: Article 50

How the EU has bungled Brexit

How the EU has bungled Brexit

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As Britain is going through the final stages of a psychiatric breakdown over Brexit, not much attention is being given to our surroundings. Time to take some slow shallow breaths and look around. How does the world look like from the EU? The EU looks pretty ropey just now. At every level it is enervated. Its Commission is serving out its final months, a lame duck administration. The European Parliament is divided and set to get more so. The national governments are just as weak. Germany…

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Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to leave the EU?

Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to leave the EU?

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I rather like this betting market which asks which of the two events will happen first – Theresa May ceasing to be Prime Minister or the UK actually leaving the EU. With uncertainties over both events this is quite a good match. My guess as we get closer to the March 29th article 50 deadline that this will see a fair bit of activity and no doubt the leave EU price will move to the favourite slot if the Theresa…

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TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse

TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse

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The betting money moves against a second referendum While Mrs May is still in post and the EU are not going to budge on the terms of the deal then it looks as though the two big options remaining are a hard Brexit on March 29th or else a new referendum being announced beforehand. So far LAB has managed to get away almost scot-free without being really pressed to expand its ambivalent position on what it wants. Its main focus…

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The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

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Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs? This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening. The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had…

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Prodi’s assertion that the EU will negotiate further if MPs reject the deal makes TMay’s task even harder

Prodi’s assertion that the EU will negotiate further if MPs reject the deal makes TMay’s task even harder

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EU WILL negotiate if TMay loses Tuesday's Commons Brexit vote, says former EU head Prodi https://t.co/6EHH57jHdv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2018 This is about identity not the economy Tomorrow’s Observer is carrying an interview with former EU President, Romano Prodi, suggesting that Brussels will be ready to negotiate further if, as is expected, MPs vote down TMay’s deal on Tuesday. The prime minister has, of course, used the consequences of the EU not being ready to offer more…

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The curtain-raiser to Tuesday’s vote – Monday’s ECJ ruling on whether Article 50 can be revoked

The curtain-raiser to Tuesday’s vote – Monday’s ECJ ruling on whether Article 50 can be revoked

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With exquisite timing the European Court of Justice will give its verdict in the article 50 case at 8am on Monday morning just a day before the big vote in House of Commons on the deal that would seal Britain’s exit from the EU. The court will rule whether or not the UK can revoke its decision in March 2017 to give notice of its plan to leave. We’ve already had a hint of the way this might go with…

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