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Category: Article 50

Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

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Perhaps the most bizarre event so far in this election campaign was Nigel Farage talking to Donald Trump on his LBC radio programme yesterday. Clearly Farage has been the big loser from the emergence of Johnson as the Conservative leader and Prime Minister and we have heard very little from the the Brexit party leader over the last month or so. How was Farage going to get back into the game and start commanding media attention again? Well we have…

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Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

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Clause 30 of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. What happens if the Government doesn’t propose an extension? Parliament would have no say and we would exit the transition period on the 31 Dec 2020 even if a trade agreement hadn’t been reached by then with the EU; ie no deal. pic.twitter.com/mbCAsrX0eB — Hilary Benn (@hilarybennmp) October 21, 2019 Why getting the timetable motion through is going to be a struggle Above is Hillary Benn on a key issue of which…

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So the Letwin amendment gets through by a majority of 16

So the Letwin amendment gets through by a majority of 16

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MPs approve Letwin amendment to the Brexit deal This amendment delays approval of the deal until the necessary legislation is passed Ayes: 322Noes: 306Majority: 16 Live updates: https://t.co/gQkqnzl6R4 #BrexitVote pic.twitter.com/lfsqqiw5pU — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) October 19, 2019

The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow

The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow

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Betfair have a market up on their exchange tomorrow’s big vote in the Commons and the Betdata.io chart above shows the movement since 1430 this afternoon. As can be seen the betting consensus is moving to the motion getting through. The market rules state that: “ If the House of Commons vote through the government motion on a EU withdrawal agreement then Yes will be settled as a winner. In the event of a tie the market will be settled…

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On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Betfair exchange prices on betdata.io chart As can be seen in the chart the day has seen a lot of movement in the £2.5m Betfair exchange main Brexit market on whether the UK will leave by the end of the month. Clearly the big risk for punters here is that this doesn’t go through the Commons on Saturday and we could see the Benn Act trigger which could delay things. Even if the vote is backing Johnson on Saturday there…

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Welcome to the Looking-Glass

Welcome to the Looking-Glass

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“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – that’s all.”  Has Humpty (oops, sorry, the PM) gone and done it? Has he actually got Britain a deal to Brexit before 31 October? Well, it appears he…

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“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

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They were also promising this. We’ve got the monstrosity of Settled Status instead. pic.twitter.com/41dNhKvENw — Catherine Redmond?#People’sVote #FBPE????? (@Redmo8Catherine) October 13, 2019 Things are different now the country’s being led by Cummings/Johnson Lots of talk at moment about “honouring the Referendum”. Fair enough. Those who espouse that seem to look to the result itself rather than the promises and assertions made my the official Leave campaign in the run up to the June 23rd 2016 vote. It was harder to…

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With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Chart of movements on the Betfair exchange from betdata.io The big news for those betting on whether there will be an exit from the EU this month within the Article 50 deadline is that the market rates the chances of a deal this week as being less likely. What we should read into that is hard to say. The EU has a long history of things going right to the wire and there must be just a possibility that something…

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