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Joe Biden raises doubts about whether he’ll run for White House in 2020

Joe Biden raises doubts about whether he’ll run for White House in 2020

2nd favourite for Democratic nomination Joe Biden Says He Feels 'Guilty' About Not Wanting to Run for President Because of ‘Charlatan’ Trump https://t.co/U8V0hYXlDn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2018 Obama’s Vice President for 8 years, Joe Biden, has been talking about the next White House Race and says he “feels guilty” about not wanting to run. Ahead of the 2016 election there was considerable speculation over whether he would run against Hillary Clinton for the nomination. This went on…

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Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

https://youtu.be/pPyzZjeH1d4 Could this help turn the tide? For nearly a year the betting markets have made a Democratic party House win in November’s midterm the favourite. These, of course, are the key elections that come up half way through a presidential term when the whole of the House is up for election as well as about a third of the Senate. The Democrats margin has narrowed very sharply on Betfair but the blues are still just ahead. From the betting…

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YouGov have run their very accurate constituency predictor on the House elections in November

YouGov have run their very accurate constituency predictor on the House elections in November

YouGov has run its MRP model on the US Congress. Midpoint gives the Democrats an overall majority of 3…https://t.co/nVYXoomaj1 — Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) June 3, 2018 Will the YouGov model be as accurate in America as it was in the UK? One of the undoubted winners of the last UK general election were YouGov and their MRP model which showed a hung parliament when most other pollsters were showing the Tories were on course for a hefty majority. I recall…

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Why betting on the Republicans in the House mid-terms may be the right strategy

Why betting on the Republicans in the House mid-terms may be the right strategy

Ian Whittaker on his betting plan The consensual view on the November mid-terms has been that the Democrats are favourites to win back the House in November.It is almost a given that a party that holds the White House loses seats – Clinton and Bush picked up a few seats in 1998 and 2002 but under unusual circumstances (pushback against Impeachment for Clinton, the aftermath of 9/11 for Bush). Trump disgust is seen as a powerful force for Democrats to…

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November’s US midterms are looking a lot tighter than a month or so ago

November’s US midterms are looking a lot tighter than a month or so ago

The polling average narrows The Betfair betting exchange get tighter For the past year or so many people have been predicting that the US midterms, the elections that take place exactly 2 years after a presidential election, would not be very good for Mr Trump. In particular the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by the Republicans, looked set to flip and that would frustrate enormously legislative objectives of the presidency. The Senate comma though, is a different matter….

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Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

NEW HAMPSHIREIf the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were [see below] …Warren 26%Biden 20%Sanders 13%Booker 8%Harris 4%Patrick 4%Gillibrand 2%McAuliffe 2%Unsure 21%(Suffolk U. Poll, Democratic primary voters, 4/26-30/18) — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) May 2, 2018 An early setback for Bernie & his enthusiastic fans? Although the first primary of the next White House Race will not be held for another 20 months or so we have the first poll out overnight on the Democratic nomination and this,…

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Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania

Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania

Maybe not a third Democratic special election victory on the trot? After the sensational Democratic party wins in the recent Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections there’s a lot of focus on Arizona 8th Congressional District where voting takes place next Tuesday. The earlier two elections saw victories for the Democratic Party which were particularly striking because because they were in places Trump had done so well at WH2016. There’s been a bit of excitement on this latest “special” election because…

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The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

With Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen due to appear in court at 1900 BST in New York there’s been some movement on the “Will Trump complete a full first term” betting on Betfair. The whole atmosphere has changed since the surprise raid on Cohen’s offices last week and there’s a lot of speculation about what might have been found. It is reported that Stormy Daniels will be at the hearing. It is also being said that the President is much…

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