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Dismantling Obamacare could be what undermines Trump and the GOP in the midterms

Dismantling Obamacare could be what undermines Trump and the GOP in the midterms

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The effort to erode what’s become an entitlement is a massive political gamble In poll after poll in the US the biggest issue to voters is not Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, the economy or immigration but the efforts by the Republicans to water down the limited public health provision that’s available in the US. Last year, it will be recalled, Trump’s plan to abolish Obamacare completely was undermined by the late Senator John McCain who rebelled against his…

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First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving up with less than 4 weeks to go

First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving up with less than 4 weeks to go

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The female-male gap widens With so many different elections in 50 different states taking place on November 6th it can be hard to discern specific trends. One polling series is the Generic Congressional Vote and the latest numbers we have are in the CNN report overnight and posted above. The big number is that the survey shows the Democrats with a 13% margin over the Republicans which, even taking into account local variations should be enough for the them to…

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New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

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In what we in the UK would describe as a poll of marginals the Washington Post is reporting a survey in 69 key Congressional districts which overall voted 56% Republican to 41% Democratic last time, This latest survey by the Schar School at George Mason University has the Democrats on 50% to the Republicans on 46%. In UK terms that represents quite some swing. The paper notes that they went for this approach because “we know less about the opinions…

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Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

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What’s going to be the Texas Senatorial race result on November 6th? I’ve just got my copy of the Phil Cowley/Denis Kavanagh study of the 2017 general election. As well as an excellent narrative on what was going on there’s also a detailed statistical analysis of the results from John Curtice and others. This series was started for GE1945 and has continued unbroken ever since. From what I’ve read so far it really is excellent read and superb reference book…

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The end of the court of Sessions?

The end of the court of Sessions?

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Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain. There are stories that Trump will be considering a few major changes to his cabinet after the mid terms, Defense [sic] Secretary Jim Mattis is one at risk but the person most at risk I think is Attorney General. I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November even if they don’t formally…

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The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020

The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020

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Republican Senators fear Trump and his voters more than anything Brett Kavanaugh will almost certainly be confirmed today as the newest member of the US Supreme Court. His behaviour in front of the Senate Committee – aggressive, threatening, overly emotional, highly partisan, evasive – would have been surprising for a nominee to an Executive branch position; as a candidate for the country’s highest court, where you might think that cool minds, sober judgement and lofty impartiality would be called for,…

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It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

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PaddyPower betting A GOP senator who has read FBI report After being briefed by the FBI today and having the opportunity to read the report myself, I am now even more confident in Judge #Kavanaugh’s nomination and fitness for the court. (1/2) — Tim Scott (@SenatorTimScott) October 4, 2018 A Democratic Senator who has also read it I just reviewed the FBI’s #Kavanaugh report. The FBI never interviewed many relevant witnesses. There are also thousands of pages of leads from…

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The Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: Trump ups the ante by mocking the woman who says she was sexually assaulted

The Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: Trump ups the ante by mocking the woman who says she was sexually assaulted

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In the betting PaddyPower make it 3/10 that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as Justice of the Supreme Court in 2018 and 21/10 that he won’t. The wider political dimension is how this is going to influence voters in the midterm elections next month when the Democratic party has a realistic chance of taking the House and an outside one of taking the Senate as well. Until a few hours ago Trump had been fairly guarded in how he referred…

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