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Category: America

My Beto O’Rourke spread bet that could still be winner even if Ted Cruz is re-elected

My Beto O’Rourke spread bet that could still be winner even if Ted Cruz is re-elected

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The betting format that gives you more options Regular PBers will know I am very keen on political spread betting simply because this offers far more betting possibilities than are available from standard bookmakers or betting exchanges like Betfair. This is best illustrated by what’s possible on tomorrow’s Texas senatorial race if you think that the Democrat, Beto will struggle to struggle to win but you think he is going to do very well. The latest polls have the Cruz…

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Key state by key state looking in detail at how tomorrow’s battle for the Senate might go

Key state by key state looking in detail at how tomorrow’s battle for the Senate might go

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It’s not just the Democrats who have turnout issues One of the things about political betting is that for the most of the time there are not things that you can have a gamble on which you’re going to see results within a few days or weeks. Well tomorrow we have the US midterm elections which by all accounts are taking the form of the referendum on the President. This is the biggest political betting event of the year and…

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Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

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Video above: The WSJ’s take on Florida allowing felons to vote. On Tuesday Floridians will vote on whether to allow one and a half millions felons the right to vote, the polling shows that it is likely the voters will back restoration of voting rights for felons. Several respected observers have said felons being allowed to vote might have no impact in the results in the sunshine state, although some say it will benefit the Democrats, some say it may…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

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In the final part of our mini-series on the US midterms ahead of Tuesday’s vote Keiran talks to Patrick Ruffini from Echelon insights on the races to watch, the prospects for a Democratic wave and the likelihood of Trump winning re-election in 2020. Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @PatrickRuffini Tweet PS if you have missed the other episodes in our mini-series we have interview Trump supporter and former White House Communications Director Anthony…

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Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

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At the margins, who controls America’s imperfect democracy could be decisive Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

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As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post. Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump’s approval rating and what to look out for in 2020. You can listen to this episode below. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet PS – For those that missed it you can check out the thread…

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Seven days before the Midterms Trump sees a sharp drop in his approval ratings

Seven days before the Midterms Trump sees a sharp drop in his approval ratings

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With just a week to go before Trump’s first major electoral test since becoming President the latest Gallup approval rating sees a biggish drop. The chart shows that polling over the past week his net ratings edging down 4% to minus 14. This reverses a recent trend of his ratings getting better. In previous midterm the President approval ratings have been a broad indicator. Although Trump will not appear on any ballot next week his big message as he has…

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The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen

The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen

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Viewcode looks at the detailed data The main elections on November 6th  are for 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, 36 out of 50 state/district Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors. The following figures were taken between 11pm BST October 27th and 3:30am BST (2:30am GMT) October 28th 2018. Nationwide generic ballot polls The United States is a large country with…

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