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Category: America

The first thing Trump’s likely to do when Jo Biden finally declares is to dub the former VP “copycat”

The first thing Trump’s likely to do when Jo Biden finally declares is to dub the former VP “copycat”

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The man who copied almost word for word a Neil Kinnock ad A new US  poll has Joe Biden beating Trump by 7% in a WH2020 match-up which puts him in the best position of all the Democrats who are seeking the nomination. In the RCP polling average he’s 5.8% ahead of his closest rival  even though he has yet to formally declare. In the betting he’s favourite although the top 4 are all within three points. Of course Biden,…

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Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now running 3rd in Iowa

Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now running 3rd in Iowa

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Probably worth a punt as a good long shot A new poll for next year’s Iowa caucuses is just out and puts a 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar from Indiana who you have probably never heard of in 3rd place. He’s Pete Buttigieg and the polling reflects the fact that over the last few days he’s been the hottest property on  US political TV shows. He’s telegenic, personable, articulate, gay and almost exactly half the age of front runners…

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Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

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Why the US betting support? The 2020 US Presidential Market is gathering steam right now with most of the top-tier Democratic possibles having announced their candidature. Just waiting on Joe Biden who has recently become favourite for the nomination at Ladbrokes. No doubt his price will drop a little further if and when he announces, but the bigger impact on the overall market would be if he says no. Oddly though, the biggest loser with Ladbrokes would be someone who…

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Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running

Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running

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RealClearPolitics This is more than name recognition: he’s very viable candidate One reason above all others convinced me in October 2015 that Donald Trump should be taken seriously as a presidential candidate: his performance in the opinion polls. It was easy to write him off as an amateur with a penchant for controversy and self-publicity; someone who would be overtaken by both his own absurdity and by professional politicians come the actual voting in the primaries. Easy but wrong, and…

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Nancy Pelosi says Trump shouldn’t be impeached + other US developments

Nancy Pelosi says Trump shouldn’t be impeached + other US developments

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Ten days to PB’s 15th birthday the latest US political betting developments While everything in the UK has been focussed on Brexit, the Commons votes, and the looming Article 50 deadline of March 29th there’ve been big political betting developments in Trump’s USA. For almost within days of his election in November 2016 betting markets were opened on Trump’s possible impeachment and there’ve been many markets on when he would go. But he’s still there although weaker as a President…

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John Hickenlooper, my 270/1 longshot for WH2020, becomes the latest to put his hat into the ring

John Hickenlooper, my 270/1 longshot for WH2020, becomes the latest to put his hat into the ring

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It was back nearly a year ago that I suggested that the ex-Governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper, might be a good longshot bet for WH2016. I know several PBers are also on him a very long odds. I think that his appeal is that he is total antidote to Trump who has proved himself a successful election winner in Colorado where he’s now stepped down after two terms as governor. I think Trump would have a tougher job riling him…

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Trump’s WH2016 victory could be the last time the national popular vote loser becomes President

Trump’s WH2016 victory could be the last time the national popular vote loser becomes President

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Map 2702win.com State moves are afoot to by-pass the electoral college We all know that in November 2016 Donald Trump won the White House Race even though in terms of the national popular vote he had 3.1% fewer votes overall than Hillary Clinton. This was not the first time this has happened. The actual decision on who should be President is determined by members of the electoral College which features in the map above. The numbers in each box are…

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Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Both old white male failures from previous White House campaigns There’s been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 democratic nomination. Last week Bernie Sanders came into the race and established himself as second favourite. Now, the latest development is that Joe Biden, who first ran for the White House in 1984, is said to be on the point of putting his hat into the ring. Both, because they’ve…

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