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Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

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Perhaps the most bizarre event so far in this election campaign was Nigel Farage talking to Donald Trump on his LBC radio programme yesterday. Clearly Farage has been the big loser from the emergence of Johnson as the Conservative leader and Prime Minister and we have heard very little from the the Brexit party leader over the last month or so. How was Farage going to get back into the game and start commanding media attention again? Well we have…

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Extraordinary – Hillary Clinton now FIFTH favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination

Extraordinary – Hillary Clinton now FIFTH favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market This is NOT a bet I would make With a hundred days to go before Iowa – the first state to decide punters continue to bet on Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and she’s now rated as a 7% chance. I think that she would like to run but the chances are remote given the other contenders who have been gathering momentum. Sure she won the popular vote at WH2016 but Trump won several…

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Biden drops to FOURTH in Iowa in by far his worst poll of his entire campaign

Biden drops to FOURTH in Iowa in by far his worst poll of his entire campaign

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Biden drops to FOURTH in new Iowa poll. Iowa State University/Civiqs survey hasWarren 28%Buttigieg 20%Sanders 18%Biden 12% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2019 Those polled were also ask to list the candidate they do not want to win the nomination. Biden and Sanders topped this list. So not a good outcome for those aged 76 and more. The Buttigieg second place will attract most attention and this is by far his best position in any state or national primary…

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Mitch McConnell’s failure to back Trump on Syria should be worrying for the White House

Mitch McConnell’s failure to back Trump on Syria should be worrying for the White House

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The total focus on Brexit over the past few days has taken the attention away from United States politics where the ongoing saga in relation to Donald Trump is becoming even more perilous for the 73 year old. There’ve been two big developments over the weekend and I suggest that something might possibly be happening that might not be good for the incumbent. Firstly there is the Washington Post article by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, above, in which he…

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Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

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Fivethirtyeight.com My 760/1 bet on Amy starting to look less of a loser A couple of weeks ago on the Betfair exchange’s WH2020 winner market I noticed that there was £8 available at 760/1 on the Minnesota Senator and contender for the nomination, Amy Klobuchar who so far has had a fairly quiet race. My view than was that anybody in the running and qualifying to take part in the next debate should have been on tighter odds than that…

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Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the latest Democratic debate

Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the latest Democratic debate

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Betfair market tracked by Betdata.io The big event in US politics overnight has been the latest Democratic TV debate and having now just caught up with it this was the best so far. It was great political TV and there has been some impact in the betting. Favourite Warren has now slipped below a 50% chance after being on 54% within the past few days. Inevitably as front runner she was the focus of attacks by other contenders of who…

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Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

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Iowa. Iowa. Iowa. I keep repeating it, because it’s important. The winner (and potentially the runner up) in Iowa define the primary process. After Obama won Iowa in 2008, he saw his national polling pop more than twenty points. In a crowded a Democratic field in need of much culling, the winner’s pop could be even greater. (Simply: there are a lot of 2% candidates whose supporters will need to find new homes after they get null delegates in Iowa.)…

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Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

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At evens  for the nomination Warren’s odds are too tight Amy Klobuchar’s odds of 300/1 are too long At this stage in a White House race odds of evens on a contender to win the nomination ten months hence are just too tight. So much can happen in the intervening period and it won’t be until Iowa on February 3rd next year that we start to get real voter numbers. There’s also the question as to whether Warren’s left wing…

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