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Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown – now being talked about as a compromise Dem candidate at a brokered convention

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown – now being talked about as a compromise Dem candidate at a brokered convention

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My 250/1 bet today In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention — in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election. (Today’s New York Times) A year ago, when the race for the White House in this year’s presidential…

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The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

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The betdata.io chart of the Betfair exchange shows how punters responded to the latest debate. The betting loser was Bernie who was a 53% chance yesterday morning and is now a 43% one. The big gainer was Biden who had his best debate performance so far in a state, South Carolina, that votes on Saturday and he has made his firewall. Bloomberg was only slightly better than last week but he has edged up in the betting. This was the…

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Yet another Dem TV Debate and this time Bernie’s expected to be in the firing line

Yet another Dem TV Debate and this time Bernie’s expected to be in the firing line

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Ahead of Saturday’s South Carolina primary we have yet another TV debate between the main contenders. This takes place in Charleston and will start at 1am GMT lasting two hours. As discussed in a previous thread today the expectation is that the front runner in the race, Bernie Sanders, will be the one who will will be most under attack because so far he has escaped the debates unscathed and there have always been other contenders who looked most vulnerable….

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Get ready for Bernie to feel the heat over threatening Obama’s re-election at WH2012

Get ready for Bernie to feel the heat over threatening Obama’s re-election at WH2012

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The issue his opponents hope will impede his bandwagon. So for in this fight for the Democratic nomination the current front manner, Bernie Sanders has escaped being the one the other candidates most like to attack. Last week in the pre-Nevada debate it was Michael Bloomberg who came under fire for his apparent attempts to use his billions to, as was described, buy the election. Now with Bernie taking a clear lead in the delegate count and looking as though…

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Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Trump?

Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Trump?

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The latest betting on Betfair has Trump as a 59% chance of being re-elected in November. This reflects a widespread view that Sanders is going to win the nomination but that when it comes to the election itself he’ll prove to be unelectable. Maybe that’s why the overall outcome betting has now moved towards Trump and certainly I have my doubts about the Dems choosing a candidate who would be 80 a few months after becoming president if elected. But…

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Bernie edges to odds-on for the nomination as the Nevada caucuses get ready to start

Bernie edges to odds-on for the nomination as the Nevada caucuses get ready to start

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It’s another big night in the fight for he WH2010 Democratic nomination with the caucuses in Nevada. We should start getting results at about 0300 GMT. Bernie goes into this latest with a very clear lead in the caucus polling. The latest RCP polling average is: Sanders 32.5% Buttigieg 16% Biden 16% Warren 14% Klobuchar 9.5% If the Sanders numbers are in line with the polling then I agree with David Herdson view in the previous thread. Mike Smithson

Early voting and a split field mean Sanders should be clear odds-on for the Dem nomination

Early voting and a split field mean Sanders should be clear odds-on for the Dem nomination

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Only a health scare is likely to stop him now Inevitably, all eyes on the race for the Democrat nomination are trained today on Nevada, which today becomes the third state to vote in the contest. Except it doesn’t. There’s still far too much attention paid in the media to ‘election day’ itself, which is now a highly misleading concept. Early voting has transformed how elections are conducted by both the public and political parties / candidates, (both here and…

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For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

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Tomorrow sees Nevada the second state in the WH2020 process to hold a caucus to choose a nominee to fight Mr. Trump. The big difference between caucuses and a normal primary is that with the former the party machine, not the state government handles the elections which can be more complex than simple statewide ballots. Democratic Party officials in Nevada are determined that there should be no repetition of the Iowa mess-up where we still don’t know for sure whether…

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