politicalbetting.com

The i are reporting that After its spectacular by-election victories in October in Nadine Dorries’s former seat of Mid Beds and Chris Pincher’s former Tamworth constituency, Labour will be hopeful of overturning Bone’s Conservatives 18,540 majority. But the Reform Party is also hoping to make a statement of intent. As i reported on Monday, Reform is already posing a growing threat to the Tories in the polls. Now the party is hoping adopting Bone might give Rishi Sunak more to worry about. The 71-year-old MP…

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In today’s Sunday Times Tim Shipman reports that When Sunak decides to call the election is becoming an issue of personality and nerve. Labour expects him to call a May election, despite the huge poll deficit. The prime minister has told Richard Holden, the new party chairman, to make sure the Tory machine is ready for then. Holding the budget earlier than usual could be a sign of a government preparing for a general election on May 2, the same…

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You can read The New York Times article here. TSE

When it comes to political betting the 2007 general election that never was when I turned from an occasional political gambler to a serious political gambler in this field. Mike Smithson had consistently been pointing out for years Gordon Brown’s ratings might be an issue up against David Cameron and the Brown bounce I put down to a relief that Tony Blair had been replaced so I was betting heavily against an early election and selling Labour on the spreads…

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TSE

Reviewing 2023 I thought I’d go for one of the moments that genuinely left me speechless and it was the revelation that Boris Johnson wanted to be injected with Covid-19 live on TV, this was part of some other revelations Boris Johnson “wanted to be injected with Covid-19 on television” to calm public fears, an ex-aide has said. The claim – by Lord Lister – came in a witness statement to the Covid inquiry. He said Mr Johnson “suggested to…

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Following on from the Northern Irish peace process one of my expectations was MPs would be safer but a different type of malevolence has replaced Irish republicanism, from Jo Cox to Sir David Amess you can understand why MPs are taking precautions like Mike Freer. If this is the reality of being an MP then expect a lot of good people to decline the opportunity to become a member of parliament. TSE

Just look at those expectations amongst independents. Unsuprisingly the odious Trump has embraced this polling. TSE