The Republic of Ireland will hold a referendum to accept the European fiscal compact treaty tomorrow with the problems in Greece and Spain in the background. The polls are showing the yes side will win, but there are significant don’t knows in the polling. A recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll put the support for the treaty at 39%, with 30% against the treaty, some 22% are unsure of how to vote and 9% intending not to vote. In March it…
Welcome once again to PB’s overnight open thread in the relaxing atmosphere of the PB NightHawks cafe.
The economic and political narrative has changed markedly for the government since the budget, and deteriorated further when it was officially declared that we were in a double dip recession. Last night’s u-turns on pasties and caravans have added to that poor narrative (Pasty la vista, Taxman as The Sun’s front page put it) The ComRes polling last night also shows Osborne’s problem Some 72 per cent of the public agree that it is time for the Coalition to change its policy…
Conservatives 34 (+1) Labour 42 (-1) Lib Dems 11 (nc) Others 13 (nc) The changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll which was carried out in March. There is a large gender gap: 40 per cent of male voters will vote Conservative, 39 per cent  Labour and 8 per cent Lib Dem. But only 29 per cent of women voters  will vote Conservative, while 45 per cent  will vote Labour, and 14 per cent Lib Dem. On the economy. Seven…
IG have put up a couple of markets in the past week regarding Greece. The bets can be located in their binary betting market section. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.
It seems very unlikely that the coalition parties will have an electoral pact/coupon at the next general election, so Vince Cable’s comments on the BBC last night confirm that (if confirmation was needed). He said “Everybody involved knows that before the next general election – the two parties will have to establish their own separate platforms and identity but how that disengagement takes place, over what time period is very much an issue for the future, certainly not something we’re talking…
The Leadership scores David Cameron is on minus 26 (minus 30 last week) Ed Miliband is on minus 23 (minus 27 last week) Nick Clegg is on minus 55 (minus 56 last week) Other yougov polling. The coverage of Cameron “chillaxing” doesn’t seem to have done any particular damage – only 33% say that he doesn’t work hard enough, compared to 39% who think he gets the balance right and 4% who think he works too hard. The YouGov VI…