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Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

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Final @ComResPolls poll for @DailyMailUK Con 35% (NC) Lab 34% (+2) Lib Dem 9% (NC) UKIP 12% (-2) Green 4% (NC) Others 6% (NC) — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 Preferred Prime Minister: David Cameron 52%, Ed Miliband 31% @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 BREAKING: Final YouGov/Sun poll for…

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Marf’s latest cartoon

Marf’s latest cartoon

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories are tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) May 4, 2015

ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

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The guardian/@ICMResearch Sheffield Hallam poll. Top graphic is naming the candidates. pic.twitter.com/FwwlOWuQ1v — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 4, 2015 ICM have conducted a poll for the Guardian in Sheffield Hallam, seat of Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg is on course to be saved from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam constituency by a tide of tactical Tory votes, according to a special Guardian/ICM poll conducted in the deputy prime minister’s constituency. The poll puts Clegg on 42%, seven points clear of his young…

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John Curtice on the exit poll

John Curtice on the exit poll

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John Curtice on the forthcoming exit poll http://t.co/887u4v1Yw3 pic.twitter.com/jjId8N7T5f — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 3, 2015 Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end. From the article John Curtice has said…

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Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

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Paddy Power have a market up on when Her Majesty will invite someone to form a government.  Please note the terms of the bet, Applies to the date of the Queen’s first invitation to form a government. Person first invited may or may not go on to form a government. Invitation counts even if an exploratory commission is accepted. PP decision final. Following on from this morning’s thread, this year’s Queen Speech is scheduled for the 27th of May, so if…

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Cameron and the post election narrative

Cameron and the post election narrative

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Finishing behind the Tories in seats and votes could force Ed Miliband to play the political equivalent of Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun. Last night, the Tory strategy for Friday morning emerged, David Cameron will declare victory on Friday if he has most votes and seats and cast a Labour led government as illegitimate, The Tories will say ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on.’ If necessary, dare the others to vote down a Conservative government. “We’ll…

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The Deputy PM after the election betting

The Deputy PM after the election betting

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Paddy Power have put up a market on who will be the Deputy Prime Minister after the General Election. Given the recent pronouncements of Nick Clegg ruling out the Lib Dems joining a Lab/SNP coalition and Vince Cable saying he could stomach another coalition with the Tories (though he would like George Osborne’s job) it might not be wise to back them, particularly based on projections/forecasts the numbers for a Con/Lib Dem coalition don’t look possible. Tim Farron might be worth backing,…

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Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

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Could the (phone) pollsters be underestimating the UKIP support? Shy isn’t the first adjective I’d normally associate with UKIP supporters, but ever since David Cameron’s (in)famous comment about UKIP being a bunch of  “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly” there’s been a perception that UKIP are the BNP in blazers. But look at the above chart from YouGov, it might be indicative that some Kippers are shy about admitting who they really support. We’ve seen polling that shows, UKIP…

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