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Heathrow is a major headache for Cameron (and an opportunity for Labour)

Heathrow is a major headache for Cameron (and an opportunity for Labour)

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Picture credit: Wikimedia Commons. Whilst the Conservatives fight over this week’s Airport Commission report, expanding Heathrow is exactly the type of common sense, business friendly policy that Labour should be supporting as it seeks to win again. The party must embrace it argues Keiran Pedley The Prime Minister has a leadership crisis on his hands. Perhaps this crisis is not as serious as recent world events in Tunisia or Greece. Perhaps it does not animate Conservative back benchers as much…

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How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

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How Corbyn could stop Burnham winning the Labour leadership http://t.co/2f88L4Rpcs pic.twitter.com/lgVdxNMvrt — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 1, 2015 Many thanks to Richard Nabavi for posting this article by Peter Kellner on the previous thread. Peter Kellner looks at how the Alternative Vote system Labour use to elect their leader might stop Andy Burnham winning, it should be remembered, that this voting system helped Ed Miliband defeat his brother five years ago. If you’re not sure how the Alternative Vote system works, this…

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How a third runway at Heathrow could make for a real Old Etonian mess for Cameron

How a third runway at Heathrow could make for a real Old Etonian mess for Cameron

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David Cameron in 2013 reaffirming his 2009 pledge that “The third runway at Heathrow is not going ahead, no ifs, no buts.” It might be a novel experience for the Tory Party to be split on issue other than than EU, but the third runway at Heathrow has the potential to be just as problematic. Today the Davies report has backed building a third runway at Heathrow. The above video shows Cameron in 2013 reaffirming a 2009 pledge not to build…

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The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

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  The big risers are Immigration/Immigrants and EU/Europe, which seems understandable given the focus on the EU referendum since the election. The big faller is the economy, which maybe confirmation of the fifteen year high in consumer confidence that the pollster GfK found yesterday. For me the most interesting aspect of this polling is the below chart. There’s a real difference between the ages, so the older groups are more concerned by the EU than younger ones, this as has…

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Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

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BREAKING: German government official says it is now too late for an extension of the Greek bailout programme. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 BREAKING: Greek finance minister says Greece will not pay the IMF on Tuesday. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 For the Greek people, it appears this tragedy has been going on longer than it took Odysseus reach home after the fall of Troy, but looking at the above tweets, it is looking like that we…

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How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakened in the last week

How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakened in the last week

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Picture credit: Twitter How opponents of Scottish independence may have struck metaphorical oil in the last week. The top table (table 5) is taken from the Scottish Government’s white paper on independence published in late 2013, whilst the bottom table (table 1) is from the Scottish Government’s Oil & Gas bulletin published last week. As the Guardian notes The Scottish government has been accused of trying to bury a report that predicts North Sea oil revenues could be £40bn less…

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How the voters moved on May 7th

How the voters moved on May 7th

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Superb work from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus on how the votes switched on May 7th http://t.co/4fOpjObE7x pic.twitter.com/A29Y8a37ss — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 29, 2015 This is a great bit of analysis of how the voters moved on election day from the previous general election, Martin Baxter explains The graphic shows the various migrations of one hundred typical voters from 2010 to now. Voters who have switched from one party to another are shown moving along the corresponding arrow. “Lost” supporters…

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Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

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Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the potential impact on the seat numbers of different parties.  In this post I shall look at how the detail of the boundary review might assist or hinder the different parties. National party strategic considerations In the boundary commission review in the mid-1990s the Conservatives…

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