In today’s Independent on Sunday, John Rentoul writes I fear that the story of a private poll that put Corbyn in the lead was a desperate ploy by the Liz Kendall campaign. My view is that Kendall is easily the best candidate, and the only one who has a chance of winning the next election for Labour without relying on the Conservatives to fall apart. But I accept that her campaign, after its flying start, has not gone well. She…
Panelbase polled Scots & Rest of UK (RUK) voters 66% of Scots would vote to REMAIN in the EU 51% of RUK voters would vote to LEAVE the EU — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015 Could tactical Scottish Nationalist voters win it for OUT? Panelbase polled 1,002 voters in Scotland and 956 voters in the rest of the UK from June 26th to July 3rd and got the above results on the forthcoming EU referendum, so this isn’t an analysis of English and…
Antifrank looks at the new members of the Tory parliamentary party. Despite relatively few seats changing hands in May, more than a fifth of Conservative MPs – 74 in total – were not in the last Parliament. They will have a big influence on the dynamics of the Conservative party in government. What do they look like? Well, here they are: I’ve ploughed through MP websites, interviews and newspaper articles to find out more about them. In the course of…
Harriet Harman’s comments on today’s Sunday Politics (in the video above) have been interpreted as coming out against Andy Burnham and endorsing Liz Kendall as leader. She warned the party not to choose “somebody who we can feel comfortable with” but who can “command the confidence of the country.” Following on from overnight reports that she chastised Andy Burnham in a Shadow Cabinet meeting, by reminding him that Labour lost the general election, I sense some in Labour get the feeling Andy Burnham…
Video: Michael Fallon warning Ed Miliband will stab UK in the back just as he did to his brother David. It can be argued that the next Labour leader has the hardest task any Labour leader faces since Arthur Henderson. Labour are vulnerable on their left flank, from a Farron led Lib Dem party who will be more attractive to Labour supporters than Nick Clegg. They will also have to deal with the Greens and the SNP on their left….
Antifrank looks at the Labour intake of 2015 The election in May was a huge disappointment for Labour, going backwards rather than forwards. Despite losing seats, however, over one fifth of the Labour MPs elected in May were not in the House of Commons in the last Parliament. That is a big chunk of the Parliamentary party and the new MPs will have a big influence over the party’s future direction. Who are these new MPs, what do they believe…
The body that will oversee the shake-up In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall.  To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all.  This is a serious omission. In fact, it will be the Boundary Commissions that determine the constituency boundaries. The parties can make representations but the Boundary Commissions will have…
Greek Fin Min @yanisvaroufakis won't sign deal without debt restructuring. #GreeceCrisis http://t.co/C6Qf4aQdLz pic.twitter.com/gbgHrr1ksD — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) July 2, 2015 Latest betting odds on the Greek referendum. pic.twitter.com/nAOfZvhB2u — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 2, 2015 The betting markets seem to believe that Yes will win, but I suspect whatever the outcome either the Greek government or the Euro in Greece will be gone shortly after the referendum result is announced. This might lead to the government, money, people and businesses wanting…