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Author: TSE

Antifrank on the GE2020 prospects for Tim Farron’s Lib Dems

Antifrank on the GE2020 prospects for Tim Farron’s Lib Dems

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The Lib Dems had a disastrous election in 2015, tallying just eight seats.  Where do they go from here?  Is the only way up? Well, actually, no.  There is a serious possibility that things could get worse for them in 2020.  Of their eight seats, only one of them looks truly safe on current boundaries: that of their leader, Tim Farron.  Three of their four most marginal seats look as though they may well lose their Lib Dem incumbents: Southport,…

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Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

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It could be more significant than tax credits The House of Lords revolt on tax credits has got a huge amount of attention.  Less newsworthy, because it didn’t succeed, was an attempt in the House of Lords to delay the introduction of individual electoral registration by 12 months beyond the government’s proposed timetable.  The implications of that vote, however, may be more far-reaching.  What effect will it have? This post is going to be both long and technical.  That is…

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The Blue and the Purple – the threat of a Tory civil war over the EU

The Blue and the Purple – the threat of a Tory civil war over the EU

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Antifrank on the potential for a big divide David Cameron is a popular leader of the Conservative party.  He has consistently outpolled it, tugging it along in his wake.  His brisk, warm, unideological Conservativism (which is closer to the Christian Democracy found on the continent than to the Thatcherism that has prevailed in the Conservative party for the last 30 years in Britain) appeals to many. Many, but not all.  His leftwing opponents outside his party are predictable.  Less predictably,…

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Betting on the first Labour MP to resign the whip

Betting on the first Labour MP to resign the whip

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The @LadPolitics market on the first Labour MP to resign the party whip. https://t.co/bXDnYmtcG3 pic.twitter.com/PeS2ZEeqKy — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 17, 2015 Ladbrokes have a market up on who will be the first Labour MP to resign the Labour whip. With the forthcoming House of Commons vote on Trident’s replacement, you can see that turning into an epic omnishambles for Labour and CND’s newest Vice-President, Jeremy Corbyn. Given John Woodcock’s past pronouncements on what he were to do were Labour not to…

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Antifrank: How the Conservatives will lose their hegemony

Antifrank: How the Conservatives will lose their hegemony

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In 1897, the British Empire was at its zenith.  “The sun never sets on the British Empire” was a literal truth.  It was the world’s dominant military power and gloried in its success as leader of the industrial revolution.  Its puissance seemed unchallengeable.  It was against that background that Rudyard Kipling composed a poem for Queen Victoria’s diamond jubilee.  This is its penultimate verse: “If, drunk with sight of power, we loose, Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe,…

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It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmith’s out of touchness

It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmith’s out of touchness

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YouGov have published their latest polling on the London Mayoral race, YouGov say What’s remarkable is just how evenly matched [Khan and Goldsmith] are, right down to the different aspects of their personality. Likeable? Its 41%/41%.  Good in a crisis? 26%/27%. Up to the job of Mayor? 38%/39%. There’s only one area where you start to see a major difference – whether the two men are ‘in touch with ordinary people’. 41% think Mr Khan is, compared to only 18%…

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Antifrank says Corbyn’s strategy is – “We only have to be lucky once”

Antifrank says Corbyn’s strategy is – “We only have to be lucky once”

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Few political leaders can have made such an immediate impact as Jeremy Corbyn.  Much of that impact has generated bemusement and hostility.  His actions suggest a man who has quite different aims from a conventional leader.  In his speeches since he has been elected, he has not mentioned Labour’s election defeat.  He has not courted the media.  He has not made an appeal to floating voters.  And as I have previously noted, he has shown no interest in the formal…

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Antifrank says what should we think about polling now?

Antifrank says what should we think about polling now?

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Most people were taken by surprise by the general election result in May.  Why?  Well, most people’s expectations were set by the abundance of opinion polls which by election day had settled on a consensus showing the two main parties neck and neck at around 33% or 34%.  The actual result, with the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 31%, came as a bombshell.  (In fairness to the pollsters, they were not alone – David Cameron reportedly had not written…

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