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The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

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Let’s go outside. Betting strategies in a tinderbox  Sometimes a lot of knowledge is a dangerous thing.  You can get very bogged down in the minutiae and ignore the big picture.  And right now, there are precisely three important things going on in British politics. Labour are divided and moving leftwards under their new leader, to the horror of most of their MPs. The Conservatives are divided with a large chunk of the party wishing to move rightwards as a result…

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Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to David Cameron’s Caesar

Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to David Cameron’s Caesar

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Video: The assassination of Julius Caesar and which has served as guide for The Tory Party in the past on deposing leaders. Nota bene, the video contains graphic violence not suitable for minors nor those of a delicate disposition. The Tory Party has a ruthless tradition of deposing leaders even the electorally successful ones, unlike most parties, the Tory party has a history of stabbing their leaders not in the back, but usually in the front, very publicly. Boris Johnson…

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The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting

The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting

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Alastair Meeks asseses the differing scenarios In a rational world, the Conservative party would select the candidate who is best able to connect with the concerns of the public and develop and explain Conservative policies to meet those concerns.  However, we are dealing with the Conservative party here and the successful candidate is going to need to win over two different electorates long before he or she gets to the voters who will actually select the next government.  With the…

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Boris backs Brexit but will it have an impact if he’s not going to be that active?

Boris backs Brexit but will it have an impact if he’s not going to be that active?

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This could be a serious mistake if he isn’t going to be that active, he’s annoyed the PM, and will frustrate the party activists who are Outers, thus damaging his chances to succeed Cameron Watch: Boris Johnson's confirms he's backing the campaign for Britain to leave EU https://t.co/pxwMk12vat https://t.co/AhFCALwvnl — Sky News (@SkyNews) February 21, 2016 Boris: I won't take part in endless TV debates against people in my party or share a platform with Farage and Galloway — Adam…

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Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

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An unpopular budget could see the referendum become an opportunity to kick the government and that’s not good news for Remain. I’m not a fan of plebiscites simply because often they become a referendum not on the substantive issue of the referendum but a referendum on the Government of the day and an opportunity to give the government a kicking without the risk of a change of government. During the AV referendum, it seemed the primary reason many voters voted…

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Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

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Hillary Clinton an 80% chance to be the Dem nominee according to Betfair. https://t.co/Tc078vwMRz pic.twitter.com/d50l8NJlcy — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 21, 2016 In the GOP race, Trump wins again A good night for Trump, but Trump skeptics see a lot to like in the results too. https://t.co/j3guoS4nPa — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 21, 2016 One concept that hasn't had a very good GOP race so far: "momentum". Both NH and SC results went against "momentum" in many respects. — Nate Silver…

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EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

EURef Myth-busting: laying to death some persistent memes

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Embed from Getty Images Myth 1: Cameron’s deal has been unexpectedly badly received Answer: NO Ipsos-MORI polled the public in November 2014 asking whether David Cameron would get a good deal for Britain in Europe.  69% said that they were either not at all confident or not very confident that he would do.  Only 26% were either fairly confident or very confident. How in fact has the outline deal gone down?  Well, almost exactly in line with this.  YouGov polled…

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Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

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At the height of the Second World War, Abraham Maslow unveiled an important new theory of psychology.  Synthesising physical and higher needs, he arranged the drivers of human behaviour in the form of a pyramid.  At the bottom, he placed physiological needs – the physical impulses that drive every animal.  Above that he placed safety and security needs.  Rising further up the pyramid, he placed love and belongingness needs, the personal emotional connections.  Near the top of the pyramid, he…

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