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Author: TSE

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

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Alastair Meeks on the Remain campaign With roughly 100 days to go to the referendum, the Remain campaign is no doubt feeling cautiously optimistic.  While the renegotiation of terms has not inspired, Remain has had a much better air war than Leave to date.  David Cameron has vigorously warned of the manifold dangers that he has identified if Britain should leave the EU.  A stately procession of the great and the good is being lined up to walk past us,…

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For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

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Alastair Meeks on the high energy PM Every politician is viewed in caricature.  David Cameron is no exception.  Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes. It is very hard to square this caricature with the David Cameron who has been working towards the…

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Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

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Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes – those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UK’s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…

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Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

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59% of Tory members back Brexit but only 20% of  members consider backing a Brexiter as the most important criteria in deciding who should be the next leader of the Tory party. The Tories will back someone who is seen as an election winner over a Brexiter. When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we…

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Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

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It looks like the GOP establishment plan to stop Trump, as embodied by Mitt Romney, might be working, but is it too late? Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% implied chance on Betfair for nomination. Now a 64% implied chance pic.twitter.com/0eo6Tf6u70 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 A fortnight ago Cruz was 70 on…

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The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality

The idea that post BREXIT trade negotiations would be wrapped up quickly is divorced from reality

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Table above: Opening excerpt EU Trade deals from 2000 onwards Alastair Meeks questions the assertions from LEAVE & Grayling There has been outrage on the Leave side at the suggestion in an official government paper that negotiations after a vote to leave the EU in the upcoming referendum might take up to 10 years or more.  Chris Grayling commented: “Claims that it will take twice as long to sort out a free trade deal with the EU as it did…

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Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk

Alastair Meeks wonders whether the LEAVE campaign has already sunk

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Embed from Getty Images BREXIT messaging has gone all over the place The referendum polling generally shows the EU hardly enthuses.  Yet Remain is still ahead in most of the polls.  One of the Leave campaign’s weaknesses is that there is as yet no agreement about what a vote for Leave stands for.  Many of the proposed answers are mutually inconsistent.  What should the intending Leave voter expect?  Here are some of the possibilities. Voting Leave doesn’t really mean Exit:…

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The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

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Let’s go outside. Betting strategies in a tinderbox  Sometimes a lot of knowledge is a dangerous thing.  You can get very bogged down in the minutiae and ignore the big picture.  And right now, there are precisely three important things going on in British politics. Labour are divided and moving leftwards under their new leader, to the horror of most of their MPs. The Conservatives are divided with a large chunk of the party wishing to move rightwards as a result…

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